基于CLUE-S模型的三江平原景观格局变化及模拟

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201806.030

应用生态学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1805-1812.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201806.030

基于CLUE-S模型的三江平原景观格局变化及模拟

李桢^1,2,刘淼^1*,薛振山³,胡远满¹,吕宪国³,李月辉¹

¹中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016;
²中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
³中国科学院东北地理与农业研究生态所, 长春 130102

收稿日期:2017-10-21 修回日期:2018-03-26 出版日期:2018-06-18 发布日期:2018-06-18
通讯作者: E-mail: lium@iae.ac.cn
作者简介:李桢, 男, 1991年生, 硕士研究生. 主要从事景观生态学、土地利用、湿地景观生态学研究. E-mail: lizhen9106@126.com
基金资助:
本文由国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0500401)资助

Landscape pattern change and simulation in the Sanjiang Plain based on the CLUE-S model.

LI Zhen^1,2, LIU Miao^1*, XUE Zhen-shan³, HU Yuan-man¹, LYU Xian-guo³, LI Yue-hui¹

¹Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China;
²University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
³Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China

Received:2017-10-21 Revised:2018-03-26 Online:2018-06-18 Published:2018-06-18
Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0500401).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 三江平原是我国沼泽地集中连片且分布面积最大的地区之一,在维持区域生态安全方面发挥着不可替代的作用.本研究基于3S技术,对1980—2010年三江平原土地利用和景观格局变化进行分析.结果发现: 1980—2010年,研究区景观格局主要变化特征为沼泽地面积减少7135 km²,减幅达59.1%,水田面积增加18010 km²,增幅达610.1%;景观指数分析结果表明,斑块数量增加,景观破碎化越来越严重,景观异质性增加,各景观类型向均匀化方向发展.基于1980—2010年5期土地利用图对CLUE-S模型进行校正和验证,30年时间尺度上模拟结果与真实景观的Kappa指数为0.71,说明模型适宜研究区30年内的模拟研究.基于校正好的模型对2010—2030年湿地变化进行多预案模拟(历史预案、规划预案、生态恢复预案),结果显示,历史预案下,沼泽地面积减少2515.44 km²,水田面积增加19656.24 km²;规划预案下,沼泽地面积减少303.28 km²,水田面积增加1392.08 km²;生态恢复预案下,沼泽地面积增加3585.60 km²,水田面积增加289.72 km².应用景观指数评价模拟结果为:历史预案下,景观格局破碎化越来越严重;规划预案下,景观格局变化不大;生态恢复预案下,湿地面积不断增加,湿地连通性升高,各景观类型向均衡方向发展,景观格局不断优化.

Abstract: The Sanjiang Plain is one of the most concentrated and contiguous area of marshes, which plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on the 3S technology, we examined the changes in land use and landscape pattern of the Sanjiang Plain from 1980 to 2010. The results showed that marshland area lost 7135 km², with a loss rate of 59.1%. The paddy area increased 18010 km², with a growth rate of 610.1%. The results of landscape indices analysis showed that the number of patches increased, the landscape fragmentation became stronger, the landscape heterogeneity increased, and the different landscape types became homogenized. The CLUE-S model was validated based on the five different periods of land use maps during 1980-2010. The Kappa index between the simulation and actual measurement at the time scale of 30 years was 0.71, indicating that the model was suitable for 30 years simulation in the study area. The future wetland changes in the Sanjiang Plain from 2010 to 2030 was simulated with validated CLUE-S models, including historical development scenario, planning scenario, and ecological restoration scenario. The simulation results showed that the marsh land would decrease 2515.44 km² and the paddy area would increase 19656.24 km²in the historical development scenario. The marsh land would decrease 303.28 km², but the paddy area would increase 1392.08 km² in the planning scenario. The marsh land would increase 3585.61 km² and the paddy area would increase 289.72 km² in the ecological restoration scenario. The landscape patterns of the three scenarios were estimated using landscape indices. The results showed that the landscape pattern fragmentation would become more and more serious in the historical development scenario. The landscape pattern would have no signifi-cant changes in the planning scenario. The wetland area and connectivity would increase, the different landscape types would become balanced, and the landscape pattern would be gradually optimized in the ecological restoration scenario.

李桢,刘淼,薛振山,胡远满,吕宪国,李月辉. 基于CLUE-S模型的三江平原景观格局变化及模拟[J]. 应用生态学报, 2018, 29(6): 1805-1812.

LI Zhen, LIU Miao, XUE Zhen-shan, HU Yuan-man, LYU Xian-guo, LI Yue-hui. Landscape pattern change and simulation in the Sanjiang Plain based on the CLUE-S model.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2018, 29(6): 1805-1812.

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基于CLUE-S模型的三江平原景观格局变化及模拟

Landscape pattern change and simulation in the Sanjiang Plain based on the CLUE-S model.

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