Markov 过程在森林资源结构动态预测中的应用──以福建省南平地区的树种结构为例

应用生态学报 ›› 1994, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (3): 232-236.

Markov 过程在森林资源结构动态预测中的应用──以福建省南平地区的树种结构为例

陈建忠¹, 周世勇¹, 徐福余²

1. 福建省建阳县林业委员会, 建阳 354200;
2. 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110015

收稿日期:1993-12-09 修回日期:1994-05-03 出版日期:1994-07-25 发布日期:1994-07-25

Application of Markov process in structural dynamic forecasting of forest resources with tree species structure in Nanping region of Fujian Province as an example

Chen Jianzhong¹, Zhou Shiyong¹, Xu Fuyu²

1. Forest Committee of Jianyang County, Fujian Province, Jianyang 354200;
2. Institute of Applied Ecology, Academia Sinica, Shenyang 110015

Received:1993-12-09 Revised:1994-05-03 Online:1994-07-25 Published:1994-07-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据马尔可夫决策过程理论和森林资源连续清查的固定样地调查资料,对南平地区的树种结构进行了预测与调整,结果表明,按现状发展,针阔比例将日趋严重,并且毛竹、经济林的占有率呈下降趋势,最终达到以杉木28.05%、马尾松16.63%、阔叶树19.01%、毛竹5.43%、经济林2.26%、其它类28.71%的树种结构。经调整后稳定状态的树种结构基本趋于合理,即各树种的占有率分别为杉木18.72%、马尾松13.24%、阔叶树26.98%、毛竹10.84%、经济林5.45%、其它类24.77%.

关键词: 森林资源结构, 马尔可夫过程, 转移概率

Abstract: Based on the theory of Markov process,and the data obtained from fixed plots for continuously surveying forest resources, the tree species structure in Nanping region is forecasted and adjusted. The results show that the ratio of conifers to broad-leaved trees will be seriously imbalance and the occupied ratios of Phyllostachys pubescens and economic trees will be decreased gradually. The tree species structure will be lied in a stable state, e. g., Cunninghamia lanceolata occupies by 28.05%, Pinus massoniana by 16.63%, broad-leaved trees by 19.01%, Phyllostachys pubescens by 5.43%, economic trees by 2.26%, and others by 28.71%. After adjustment, they occuy by 18.72, 13.24, 26.98, 10.84, 5.45 and 24.77% respectively.

Key words: Forest resources structure, Markov process, Transition probability

陈建忠, 周世勇, 徐福余. Markov 过程在森林资源结构动态预测中的应用──以福建省南平地区的树种结构为例[J]. 应用生态学报, 1994, 5(3): 232-236.

Chen Jianzhong, Zhou Shiyong, Xu Fuyu. Application of Markov process in structural dynamic forecasting of forest resources with tree species structure in Nanping region of Fujian Province as an example[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 1994, 5(3): 232-236.

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