县域农业主导产业结构生态适宜性评价及其发展预测

应用生态学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (11): 3164-3172.

县域农业主导产业结构生态适宜性评价及其发展预测

王梁,朱利群,张四伟,张沛琪,徐敏轮,卞新民^**

（南京农业大学区域农业研究所，南京 210095）

出版日期:2012-11-18 发布日期:2012-11-18

Eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure: Assessment and development prediction.

WANG Liang, ZHU Li-qun, ZHANG Si-wei, ZHANG Pei-qi, XU Min-lun, BIAN Xin-min

(Institute of Regional Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

Online:2012-11-18 Published:2012-11-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于生态适宜性“三基点”理论，采用动态赋权和拟合的方法，建立县域农业主导产业结构生态适宜性评价指标体系，并以山东省章丘市为例，对其县域农业主导产业结构生态适宜性进行评价.结果表明：在有限的农业生态资源下，2005—2010年，章丘市4种农业主导产业的生态适宜性综合指数呈上升趋势；2011—2015年，则呈下降趋势，其中，2015年油料作物和水果的生态适宜性综合指数出现负值.对章丘市的应用研究证实了本文提出的县域农业主导产业结构生态适宜性评价方法的有效性及预测模型的合理性.

Abstract: Based on the ‘three critical points’ theory of eco-fitness, and by using dynamic weighting and fitting methods, an assessment system for the eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure was constructed, and, taking Zhangqiu of Shandong Province, East China as a case, the eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure was assessed and predicted. Due to the limited agro-ecological resources, the comprehensive eco-fitness index of four kinds of agricultural leading industry in Zhangqiu presented an upward trend from 2005 to 2010, but a downward trend from 2011 to 2015. The eco-fitness indices of oil crops and fruits would be negative in 2015. The applied research in Zhangqiu confirmed the validity of the assessment system constructed for the ecofitness of county-level agriculture leading industry structure and the rationality of the prediction model.

王梁,朱利群,张四伟,张沛琪,徐敏轮,卞新民**. 县域农业主导产业结构生态适宜性评价及其发展预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2012, 23(11): 3164-3172.

WANG Liang, ZHU Li-qun, ZHANG Si-wei, ZHANG Pei-qi, XU Min-lun, BIAN Xin-min. Eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure: Assessment and development prediction.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2012, 23(11): 3164-3172.