Abstract: To gain a more comprehensive understanding of habitat preferences, potential wintering area distribution and drivers of population expansion of Grus leucogeranus, we selected 70 geographical distribution points and 11 environmental variables in its wintering period from 2015-2022. We modeled suitable habitat patterns for G. leucogeranus in China using MaxEnt model, and analyzed the relationship between suitable habitat distribution and environmental factors. The results showed that the dominant factors affecting the overwintering distribution of G. leucogeranus were distance to mudflats, elevation, average precipitation in February, distance to water sources, minimum temperature in December, and land use type, with a cumulative contribution rate of 94.6%. The wintering ground of G. leucogeranus in China was mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze Plain and the Yellow River Delta of the North China Plain. In these regions, the area of high-, medium- and low-suitability habitat were 17685, 60787 and 60747 km², respectively. A total of 40 protected areas had been established in the high-suitability wintering range of G. leucogeranus in China, whereas 12 high-suitability wetlands such as Qili Lake in Anhui, Liangzi Lake in Hubei and Chenjia Lake in Jiangxi were still unprotected. The wintering grounds had shown a trend of expansion to the northeast and southeast since 2015. Considering the large-scale habitat shifts of G. leucogeranus in recent years and the frequent new wintering records in various places, we suggested that the shortage of food resources in natural habitats was the main factor driving the expansion of G. leucogeranus’ wintering range. To protect G. leucogeranus more effectively, we should strengthen the restoration of natural habitats and the management of farmland habitats.

Key words: Grus leucogeranus, MaxEnt model, wintering range, conservation vacancy, influencing factor, environmental variable