Identification of the potential distribution area of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China under climate change based on the MaxEnt model

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202205.024

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the distribution records of Cunninghamia lanceolata, we used the maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and geographic information system (GIS) methods, combined with environmental factors such as climate and terrain, to predict the potential distribution areas suitable for C. lanceolata under current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that annual precipitation was the most important factor driving the distribution of C. lanceolata. Under the current climate scenario, the total area of suitable for C. lanceolata growth was about 3.28 million km², accounting for about 34.5% of the total land area of China. Among all the suitable areas, the lowly, intermediately, and highly suitable areas accounted for 18.3%, 29.7% and 52.0% of the total, respectively. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of C. lanceolata would increase, showing a clear trend of northward expansion in China. A concentrated and contiguous distribution region highly suitable for C. lanceolata would appear in the humid subtropical areas of southern China. The model was tested by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The average area under the curve of ROC of the training set was 0.91, showing high reliability.

Key words: Cunninghamia lanceolata, potential geographical distribution, MaxEnt model, climate scenario

CHEN Yu-guang, LE Xin-gui, CHEN Yu-han, CHENG Wu-xue, DU Jin-gui, ZHONG Quan-lin, CHENG Dong-liang. Identification of the potential distribution area of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China under climate change based on the MaxEnt model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2022, 33(5): 1207-1214.

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