Regional simulation of rice yield change under two emission scenarios of greenhouse gases

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the newest emission scenarios of SO₂ and greenhouse gases,i.e.,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)A2 and B2 scenarios,and by using RCM(Regional Climate Model)-PRECIS and CERES-Rice model,this paper simulated the rice yield change in 2080 at 50?50 km scale.The results showed that there was a great range of yield change across whole China.The yield would increase along the Changjiang River and in South China,and decrease in North and Northeast China.Because of the direct effect of CO₂ on rice growth,the SRES A2 scenario would be more positive to the increase of rice yield than B2.In 2080,the total rice yield in whole China would increase under A2 emission scenario,while decrease under B2 emission scenario.

Key words: SRES, Climate change, Rice, Simulation

CLC Number:

S511

XIONG Wei, XU Yinlong, LIN Erda, LU Zhiguang . Regional simulation of rice yield change under two emission scenarios of greenhouse gases [J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2005, 16(1): 65-68.

References

[1] Cholaw B. 2003. Simulation of the future change of east Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Chin Sci Bull (科学通报), 48(10):1024～1030
[2] Deng G-Y(邓根云). ed. 1993. The Impact of Climate Change on Chinaese Agriculture and Crop Yield. Beijing:Beijing Science and Technology Press. 282～296 (in Chinese)
[3] Ge D-K(葛道阔), Jin Z-Q(金之庆), Shi C-L(石春林). 2002.Gradual impact of climate change on rice production and adaptation strategies in southem China. Jiangsu Agric Sci (江苏农业科学),(1):1～8 (in Chinese)
[4] Jin Z-Q (金之应). 1996. The Simulation of Impact of Climate Change on Chinese Crop Production. Nanjing:Nanjing Agricultural University. 90～93 (in Chinese)
[5] Jin Z-Q(金之庆), Ge D-K(葛道阔), Chen H(陈华). 1991. Impacts of climate change on rice production in Southem China. J Nanjing For Univ(南京林业大学学学报), 10 (special issue):11～19(in Chinese)
[6] Jin Z-Q(金之庆). 1995. The different reaction to increase of CO₂ concentration between C3 and C4 crop. World Agric (世界农业),9:36～37
[7] Knox JW, Matthews RB, Wassmann R. 2000. Using a crop/soil model and GIS techniques to assess methane emissions from rice fields in Asia Ⅲ. Database. Nutr Cycl Agron, 58:179～199
[8] Lin E-D(林而达), Zhang H-X(张厚宜), Wang J-H(王京华).1997.The simulation of the Impacts of Climate Change on China Agriculture. Beijing:China Agricultural Press. 54～61 (in Chinese)
[9] Liu Y-Q(刘永强), Ding Y-H(丁一汇). 1995. A review of the study on simulation of regional climate. Quar J Appl Met (应用气象学报), 6(2):228～239(in Chinese)
[10] Ritchie JT, Baer BD, Chou TY. 1989. Effect of global climate change on agriculture Great Lakes Region. In:Smith JB, Tirpak DA eds. The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States:Appendix C-Agriculture. Washington DC:US EPA. 1～25
[11] Rosenzweig C, RitchieJT, Jones JW, et al. 1995. Climate Change and Agriculture:Analysis of Potential International Impacts. Wisconsin:ASA Special Pub. Num. 59:50～66
[12] Song F-B(宋凤斌), Wang Z-C(王志春). 2002. Effects of free carbon dioxide enrichment in atmosphere on crop production. Syst Sci Comp Stud Agri (农业系统科学与综合研究), 18(4):249～256(in Chinese)
[13] The Editorial Board of China Agricultural Yearbook(中国农业年鉴编委会). 2001. The Yearbook of China Agriculture for 2001.Beijijing:Chinese Agricultural Press. 28～31 (in Chinese)
[14] The Editorial Board of National Atlas(国家地图集编纂委员会).1989. Chinese National Agricultural Atlas. Bejing:China Mapping Press. 34～37 (in Chinese)
[15] The National Bureau of Soil Surey(全国土壤普查办公室).1995. Chinese Soil. Beijing:China Agricultural Press. 1～10(in Chinese)
[16] The Researh Team for Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture and Its Solutions (气候变化对中国农业影响及其对策课题组). 1993. The Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Solutions. Beijing:Peking University Press. 55～124 (in Chinese)
[17] Uehara G, Tsuji GY. 1998. Overview of IBSNAT. In:Gordon YT,Hoogenboom G, Philip K, eds. Understanding Options for Agricultural Production:Systems Approaches for Sustainable Agricultural Development, The Netherlands. Wageninggen:Kluwer Academic Publisher, FWT Penning de Vries, CABO-DLO. 1～8
[18] WangC-Y(王春乙),Pan Y-R(潘亚茹),Bai Y-M(白月明),et al. 1997. The experiment study of effects doubled CO₂ concentration on several main crops in China. J Met (气象学报), 55 (1):86～94 (in Chinese)
[19] Wang X-L(王修兰),Xu S-H(徐师华), Ling H(梁红). 1998.The experimental study of the effects of CO₂ concentration enrichment on growth, development and yield of C3 and C4 crop. Agric Sci China(中国农业科学),31(1):55～61(in Chiense)
[20] Xiong W(熊伟),Tao F-L(陶福禄),Xu Y-L(许吟隆).2001.Rice yield change simulation under climate change. Chin Agro-Met (中国农业气象), 22(3):1～5(in Chinese)
[21] Zhang Y(张宇),Wang F-T(王馥棠). 1995.A numerical simulation study of the impacts of climate warming on the rice pdrouction in China. Quar J Appl Met (应用气象学报), 6 (A01):19～25 (in Chinese)