未来气候变化对海南橡胶树春季物候期的影响

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202004.002

应用生态学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 1241-1249.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202004.002

未来气候变化对海南橡胶树春季物候期的影响

李宁^1,2,3, 白蕤^4*, 伍露⁵, 李玮^1,2,3, 陈淼^1,2,3, 陈歆^1,2,3, 范长华^1,2,3, 杨桂生^1,2,3

¹中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所, 海口 571101;
²国家农业环境儋州观测实验站, 海南儋州 571737;
³农业部儋州农业环境科学观测实验站, 海南儋州 571737;
⁴海南省气象科学研究所, 海口 570203;
⁵北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871

收稿日期:2019-11-18 出版日期:2020-04-20 发布日期:2020-04-20
通讯作者: *E-mail: bairui_118@163.com
作者简介:李宁, 男, 1989年生, 助理研究员。主要从事作物模型和气候变化研究。E-mail: n.li@catas.cn
基金资助:
海南省自然科学基金项目(317236,319QN276)和中国热带农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(1630042020006)资助

Impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages of rubber tree in Hainan, China

LI Ning^1,2,3, BAI Rui^4*, WU Lu⁵, LI Wei^1,2,3, CHEN Miao^1,2,3, CHEN Xin^1,2,3, FAN Chang-hua^1,2,3, YANG Gui-sheng^1,2,3

¹Environment and Plant Protection Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China;
²National Agricultural Experimental Station for Agricultural-Environment, Danzhou 571737, Hainan, China;
³Danzhou Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Agro-Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Danzhou 571737, Hainan, China;
⁴Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science, Haikou 570203, China;
⁵College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

Received:2019-11-18 Online:2020-04-20 Published:2020-04-20
Contact: *E-mail: bairui_118@163.com
Supported by:
This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province (317236,319QN276) and the Central Public-Interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund for Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences (1630042020006).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为研究未来气候变化对海南岛橡胶树春季物候期(第一蓬叶展叶期和春花期)的影响,以国内外关于橡胶树物候期量化研究和橡胶树观测试验数据为基础,结合作物生长钟模型,建立橡胶树春季物候期模型,开发成计算机软件RubberSP并进行适宜性评价。在此基础上,通过贝叶斯模型平均法(BMA)结合耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)多模式数据集中的5个大气环流模式(GCMs),分别在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下,以1986—2017年为基准时段,预估2020—2099年气候变化对橡胶树春季物候期的可能影响。结果表明:RubberSP的模拟精度较高,模拟值与实测值的决定系数R²为0.73～0.87,均方根误差RMSE为3.26～4.15 d,归一化均方根误差NRMSE为3.4%～7.4%。BMA方法可以有效地处理单一GCMs带来的不确定性问题,较好地反映出气温变化趋势;预估RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,海南岛至21世纪末较基准时段分别升温超过0.3、1.0和2.5 ℃。在未来气候情景下,春季物候期出现日序提前,产胶量提高的可能性变大。日序等值线均向西北方向移动,海南岛橡胶树种植最适宜区有向西北方向扩大的可能。第一蓬叶展叶期的空间差异性变大,春花期则略微变小。橡胶树春季物候期在未来3种情景下提前或推迟的变化幅度随RCP情景下升温的幅度而变化,RCP2.6最平缓,RCP8.5最剧烈。

Abstract: To explore the impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages (first leaf storey expansion stage, spring flowering stage) of rubber tree in Hainan Island, we established a rubber tree spring phenology simulation model based on the crop clock model and developed a computer software RubberSP. The model simulation accuracy was examined with experimental observed phenology data. Five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were integrated using Bayesian Model averaging method (BMA) to predict the impacts of climate change on the spring phenology of rubber tree in 2020-2099 (relative to 1986-2017) under climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The results showed that the RubberSP model had good simulation accuracy, with the determination coefficient (R²) values ranging between 0.73-0.87, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 3.26 to 4.15 d, and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 3.4%-7.4% between measured and simulated phenology stages. The uncertainty of a single GCM could be avoided by BMA method, which could better reflect the change trend of temperature. Temperature of Hainan Island in the end of 21 century, under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, would increase by more than 0.3, 1.0 and 2.5 ℃ compared with the baseline, respectively. The spring phenology stages would appear earlier and yield would increase in the future climate scenario. The time isoline of spring phenology stages would move forward to northwest, which indicated that most suitable area for rubber tree plantation in Hainan Island would expand to the northwest. The spatial difference of the first leaf storey expansion stage would be more evident, but not for spring flowering stage. The amplitude of rubber tree spring phenology variations was closely related to the increases of temperature under different RCP scenarios, with the most apparent change under RCP8.5 scenario and most mild change under RCP2.6 scenario.

李宁, 白蕤, 伍露, 李玮, 陈淼, 陈歆, 范长华, 杨桂生. 未来气候变化对海南橡胶树春季物候期的影响[J]. 应用生态学报, 2020, 31(4): 1241-1249.

LI Ning, BAI Rui, WU Lu, LI Wei, CHEN Miao, CHEN Xin, FAN Chang-hua, YANG Gui-sheng. Impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages of rubber tree in Hainan, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2020, 31(4): 1241-1249.

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未来气候变化对海南橡胶树春季物候期的影响

Impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages of rubber tree in Hainan, China

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