关键词: 香蕉, 荔枝, 寒害, 致灾因子, 气候风险区划, 北方针叶林, 人为火, 逻辑斯蒂回归, 空间分析

Abstract: Based on the 1951-2006 climatic observation data from 224 meteorological stations in South China (Guangdong Province, Guangxi Autonomous Region, and Fujian Province) and the historical information about the chilling injury losses of banana and litchi, the accumulated harmful chilling for the processes with minimum daily temperature ≤5.0 ℃ and more than 3 days was used to indicate the climatic risk of chilling injury during the whole growth season, and an integrated climatic index with the background of climate change was constructed. The maps of geographical distribution of climatic risk probability for each grade chilling injury, and of integrated climatic risk zoning for banana and litchi’s chilling injury were drawn, and the spatial variation of climatic risk for banana and litchi’s chilling injury was commented. The results indicated that in the study area, climate warming might lead to the decrease of cold resistance of banana and litchi, which could increase the disaster risk of chilling injury. The geographical distribution of climatic risk probability for banana and litchi’s chilling injury showed a zonal pattern. According to the integrated climatic risk index, the banana and litchi’s chilling injury region was divided into three risk types, i.e., high risk, moderate risk, and low risk, which provided an important basis for the adjustment of agricultural production structure.

Key words: banana, litchi, chilling injury, disaster-inducing factor, climatic risk zoning, boreal forest, human-caused fire, Logistic regression, spatial analysis.