应用混合模型和分位数回归分析东黄海小黄鱼肥满度空间异质性

应用生态学报

应用混合模型和分位数回归分析东黄海小黄鱼肥满度空间异质性

刘尊雷^1,2,袁兴伟^1,2,严利平^1,2,杨林林^1,2,程家骅^1,2**

(¹中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所, 上海 200090; ^2农业部东海与远洋渔业资源开发利用重点实验室, 上海 200090)

出版日期:2013-09-18 发布日期:2013-09-18

Spatial heterogeneity in body condition of small yellow croaker in Yellow Sea and East China Sea based on mixed-effects model and quantile regression analysis.

LIU Zun-lei^1,2, YUAN Xing-wei^1,2, YAN Li-ping^1,2, YANG Lin-lin^1,2, CHENG Jia-hua^1,2

(¹East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Shanghai 200090 China; ^2Key Laboratory of East China Sea & Oceanic Fishery Resources Exploitation and Utilization, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 200090, China)

Online:2013-09-18 Published:2013-09-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于2008—2010年黄海南部近海(SYS)、东海北部外海(NECS)和东海中部近海(MECS)小黄鱼体长和体质量数据,采用均值回归和分位数回归模型,解析了小黄鱼幼鱼和成鱼群体体长-体质量关系的空间变异.结果表明: 协方差模型和线性混合模型的残差标准误基本一致,线性模型残差标准误最高.从线性混合模型对特定区域和总体区域平均体质量计算的相对比值来看,SYS和NECS幼鱼群体的平均体质量高于总体平均值,但MECS低于总体平均值;成鱼群体则为NECS平均体质量高于总体平均值,MECS和SYS低于总体平均值.分位回归估计的肥满度和异速生长指数结果显示,幼鱼群体在不同分位的估计参数呈显著变化,SYS异速生长指数均值为2.85,在0.1~0.95分位的估计值变化范围为2.63~2.96.MECS和NECS参数估计值和置信区间在各分位数呈异质性变化,低分位时,NECS估计值在3个调查区域中最低,MECS最高;高分位时,MECS和NECS均高于SYS.对低分位0.25、中分位0.5和高分位0.75分位数的异速体长体质量关系的方差分析结果显示,低分位和高分位数之间体长体质量关系极为显著(0.25∶0.75,F=6.38,df=1737,P<0.01),低分位数和中分位数之间为显著(0.25∶0.5,F=2.35,df=1737,P=0.039),中分位数和高分位数之间接近显著(0.5∶0.75,F=2.21,df=1737,P=0.051).成鱼群体SYS异速生长指数均值为3.01,在0.1~0.95分位的估计值变化范围为2.77~3.10.低分位和高分位数之间体长体质量关系差异达到显著水平(0.25∶0.75,F=3.31,df=2793,P=0.01),低分位和中分位之间差异不显著(0.25∶0.5,F=0.98,df=2793,P=0.43),而高分位和中分位之间则差异极显著(0.5∶0.75,F=3.56,df=2793,P<0.01).

Abstract: By using the 2008-2010 investigation data about the body condition of small yellow croaker in the offshore waters of southern Yellow Sea (SYS), open waters of northern East China Sea (NECS), and offshore waters of middle East China Sea (MECS), this paper analyzed the spatial heterogeneity of body length-body mass of juvenile and adult small yellow croakers by the statistical approaches of mean regression model and quantile regression model. The results showed that the residual standard errors from the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and the linear mixed-effects model were similar, and those from the simple linear regression were the highest. For the juvenile small yellow croakers, their mean body mass in SYS and NECS estimated by the mixed-effects mean regression model was higher than the overall average mass across the three regions, while the mean body mass in MECS was below the overall average. For the adult small yellow croakers, their mean body mass in NECS was higher than the overall average, while the mean body mass in SYS and MECS was below the overall average. The results from quantile regression indicated the substantial differences in the allometric relationships of juvenile small yellow croakers between SYS, NECS, and MECS, with the estimated mean exponent of the allometric relationship in SYS being 2.85, and the interquartile range being from 2.63 to 2.96, which indicated the heterogeneity of body form. The results from ANCOVA showed that the allometric body length-body mass relationships were significantly different between the 25^th and 75^th percentile exponent values (F=6.38, df=1737, P<0.01) and the 25^th percentile and median exponent values (F=2.35,df=1737,P=0.039). The relationship was marginally different between the median and 75^th percentile exponent values (F=2.21, df=1737, P=0.051). The estimated body lengthbody mass exponent of adult small yellow croakers in SYS was 3.01 (10^th and 95th percentiles=2.77 and 3.1, respectively). The estimated body lengthbody mass relationships were significantly different from the lower and upper quantiles of the exponent (F=3.31, df=2793, P=0.01) and the median and upper quantiles (F=3.56,df=2793, P<0.01), while no significant difference was observed between the lower and median quantiles (F=0.98, df=2793, P=0.43).

刘尊雷1,2,袁兴伟1,2,严利平1,2,杨林林1,2,程家骅1,2**. 应用混合模型和分位数回归分析东黄海小黄鱼肥满度空间异质性[J]. 应用生态学报.

LIU Zun-lei1,2, YUAN Xing-wei1,2, YAN Li-ping1,2, YANG Lin-lin1,2, CHENG Jia-hua1,2. Spatial heterogeneity in body condition of small yellow croaker in Yellow Sea and East China Sea based on mixed-effects model and quantile regression analysis.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology.