气候变化对凤眼莲在长江中下游地区潜在适生区的影响

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202603.035

应用生态学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 917-925.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202603.035

气候变化对凤眼莲在长江中下游地区潜在适生区的影响

谢涵琦^1,2, 张庆吉³, 马小雪^2*, 田琳琳⁴

¹福建师范大学地理科学学院, 湿润亚热带生态-地理过程教育部重点实验室, 福州 350117;
²江苏省第二师范学院地理科学学院, 气候风险模拟与城乡智慧治理重点实验室, 南京 210013;
³南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京 210023;
⁴浙江农林大学, 森林食物资源挖掘与利用全国重点实验室, 杭州 311300

收稿日期:2025-08-15 接受日期:2026-01-24 出版日期:2026-03-18 发布日期:2026-09-18
通讯作者: *E-mail: maxiaoxue029@126.com
作者简介:谢涵琦, 女, 2001年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事湿地生物地球化学循环过程研究。E-mail: 15006083580@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42406234)和江苏省青蓝工程优秀青年骨干教师项目

Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable habitats of Pontederia crassipes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China

XIE Hanqi^1,2, ZHANG Qingji³, MA Xiaoxue^2*, TIAN Linlin⁴

¹Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350117, China;
²Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Climate Risk Simulation and Smart Urban-Rural Governance, School of Geographical Sciences, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing 210013, China;
³School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;
⁴State Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China

Received:2025-08-15 Accepted:2026-01-24 Online:2026-03-18 Published:2026-09-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 凤眼莲是入侵性最强的水生植物之一,其入侵与扩散可能威胁长江中下游地区的生态稳定。为评估气候变化下凤眼莲的潜在扩散趋势,本研究采用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS空间分析技术,分析影响凤眼莲在长江中下游地区扩散的主导环境因子,模拟并评估1970—2000年及2041—2100年不同气候情景(SSP245和SSP585)下的潜在适生区分布。结果表明:训练集AUC平均值为0.954,表明MaxEnt模型预测高度可靠。影响凤眼莲分布的最重要环境因子为等温性、海拔和温度季节性变动系数,累计贡献率为82.9%,溶解氧含量对凤眼莲分布也产生一定影响。1970—2000年,凤眼莲潜在适生区面积为5.77×10⁴ km²,高、中适生区主要集中在江汉平原、鄱阳湖、苏皖沿江平原以及长江三角洲等水流交汇密集区。2041—2100年,凤眼莲潜在适生区总体以太湖、鄱阳湖和洞庭湖为中心呈现扩增后再缩减的变化趋势,其中,2041—2080年在长江中下游地区西北部出现新的高适生区点。SSP245和SSP585气候情景下,2041—2060年,凤眼莲潜在适生区总面积增至最大,分别为8.11×10⁴和6.81×10⁴ km²,2060年后开始减小,2081—2100年大幅缩减。长期来看,SSP245情景会抑制凤眼莲蔓延。

关键词: 凤眼莲, 长江中下游地区, MaxEnt模型, 影响因子, 适生区, 气候变化

Abstract: Pontederia crassipes is one of the most invasive aquatic plants, which threatens the ecological stability of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. To assess the potential spread trends of water hyacinth under climate change, we employed the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques to analyze the dominant environmental factors influencing the spread of P. crassipes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. We evaluated the potential suitable habitat during 1970-2000 and under different climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) during 2041-2100. The results showed high predictive accuracy of the model, with the mean AUC of the training dataset reaching 0.954. The key environmental factors determining the distribution of P. crassipes were isothermality, elevation, and temperature seasonality, with a cumulative contribution of 82.9%. Dissolved oxygen affected the distribution of P. crassipes. During 1970-2000, the total potential suitable habitat area was 5.77×10⁴ km², primarily concentrated in the Jianghan Plain area, Poyang Lake, the Jiangsu-Anhui Yangtze River Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta, regions with dense river networks. During 2041-2100, the potential suitable habitat was projected to initially expand and then contract, centered mainly around Taihu Lake, Poyang Lake, and Dongting Lake, with new highly suitable areas emerging in the northwestern part of the study region. Under the different climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) during 2041-2100, the total area of potential suitable habitat for P. crassipes reached its maximum, at 8.11×10⁴ and 6.81×10⁴ km², respectively. The area of suitable habitats wowld decrease after 2060, and experience substantial shrinkage by 2081-2100. In the long term, the SSP245 scenario would suppress the spread of P. crassipes.

Key words: Pontederia crassipes, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, MaxEnt model, influencing factor, habitat suitability area, climate change

谢涵琦, 张庆吉, 马小雪, 田琳琳. 气候变化对凤眼莲在长江中下游地区潜在适生区的影响[J]. 应用生态学报, 2026, 37(3): 917-925.

XIE Hanqi, ZHANG Qingji, MA Xiaoxue, TIAN Linlin. Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable habitats of Pontederia crassipes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2026, 37(3): 917-925.

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气候变化对凤眼莲在长江中下游地区潜在适生区的影响

Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable habitats of Pontederia crassipes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China

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