气候变化对南极阿德利属企鹅潜在适宜生境分布的影响

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202603.037

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 南极企鹅在维持南极生态系统能流中扮演着重要角色,也是南极生态系统健康的重要指示物种。本研究基于海洋生物地理信息系统(OBIS)收集了阿德利属企鹅分布记录数据,基于2010—2020年和未来(2090—2100年)SSP5-8.5气候条件下的海洋环境数据集,运用MaxEnt模型,模拟了阿德利企鹅、巴布亚企鹅、帽带企鹅两个时期的潜在适宜生境分布及变化。结果表明:影响阿德利属企鹅分布的关键环境变量包括海洋表层温度和海冰覆盖度等。2010—2020年,阿德利属企鹅的潜在适宜生境空间分布存在一定的分离,其中阿德利企鹅的潜在适宜生境零星分布于60° S—75° S南极大陆附近的沿岸及海域,巴布亚企鹅的潜在适宜生境集中分布于南极大陆延伸入海的沿岸及远离南极陆地的岛屿,帽带企鹅的潜在适宜生境与巴布亚企鹅相似,集中分布于远离南极陆地的海岸和岛屿。2090—2100年SSP5-8.5气候情景下,3种企鹅潜在适宜生境在维持原有分布格局的基础上均存在缩小趋势:阿德利企鹅缩减了10.20×10⁶ km²,巴布亚企鹅缩减了0.47×10⁶ km²,帽带企鹅缩减了1.66×10⁶ km²。

关键词: MaxEnt模型, 阿德利属企鹅, 潜在适宜栖息地, 气候变化

Abstract: Penguins play a crucial role in maintaining the energy flow of the Antarctic ecosystem and serve as important indicator species for ecosystem health. In this study, we collected the distribution records for Pygoscelis penguins from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS). Using the MaxEnt model and marine environmental datasets during 2010-2020 and 2090-2100 under SSP5-8.5 climate conditions, we simulated the potentially suitable habitat distributions and changes for Pygoscelis adeliae, P. antarctica, and P. papua during those two periods. The results showed that sea surface temperature and ice coverage were key environmental variables influencing the distribution of penguins. In the first period, the potentially suitable habitats of the Pygoscelis species exhibited distinct spatial segregation. The potentially suitable habitats for P. adeliae were sporadically distributed along the coasts and adjacent waters of the Antarctic continent between 60° S and 75° S. The potentially suitable habitats for P. papua were concentrated along the coast where the Antarctic continent extends into the ocean and on offshore islands distant from the mainland. The potentially suitable habitats for P. antarctica were similar to those of P. papua, primarily concentrated along distant coasts and islands. Under the future SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, the habitats for all three species were projected to shrink. The area of potentially suitable habitat for P. adeliae was projected to a decrease of 10.2×10⁶ km², for P. papua of 0.47×10⁶ km², and for P. antarctica of 1.66×10⁶ km².

Key words: MaxEnt model, Pygoscelis penguin, potentially suitable habitat, climate change

王金睿, 胡爱莲, 杨娟. 气候变化对南极阿德利属企鹅潜在适宜生境分布的影响[J]. 应用生态学报, 2026, 37(3): 926-932.

WANG Jinrui, HU Ailian, YANG Juan. Impact of climate change on the potentially suitable habitat distribution of Pygoscelis penguins in Antarctica[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2026, 37(3): 926-932.

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