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天山北坡经济带棉花播期对气候变暖的响应

只娟1,张山清2,徐文修3**,田彦君3,张娜3,苏丽丽3   

  1. (1新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052;  2新疆农业气象台, 乌鲁木齐 830002; 3新疆农业大学农学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052)
  • 出版日期:2015-07-18 发布日期:2015-07-18

Response of cotton seeding date to climate warming in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain, China.

ZHI Juan1, ZHANG Shan-qing2, XU Wen-xiu3, TIAN Yan-jun3,ZHANG Na3, SU Li-li3   

  1. (1College of Grassland and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China;
    2Xinjiang Agrometeorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China;
    3College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)
  • Online:2015-07-18 Published:2015-07-18

摘要: 利用1971—2010年天山北坡经济带棉区11个代表站的气象资料,采用气候倾向率、t检验和IDW插值方法,分析了棉区3月下旬至4月下旬各旬平均气温和≥12 ℃初日的时空变化对棉花播期的影响.结果表明: 研究期间,天山北坡经济带 3月下旬、4月上、中、下旬平均气温分别以0.8、0.5、0.1和0.5 ℃·(10 a)-1的倾向率呈增加趋势,但是≥12 ℃初日却以-0.5 d·(10 a)-1的倾向率呈提前趋势.各气象要素均在20世纪90年代发生突变,突变年后3月下旬、4月上、中、下旬平均气温依次增加2.5、1.9、1.1和1.5 ℃,分别达到7.2、10.0、13.2和15.6 ℃.3月下旬至4月下旬各旬平均气温的高值区普遍位于天山北坡东部棉花主产区的乌苏市、沙湾县和玛纳斯县站点周围,而低值区基本在东部的乌鲁木齐市附近.≥12 ℃初日的空间分布具有地区差异性,研究期间,初日日序较早的区域由精河县向西扩展到棉花主产区玛纳斯县周围,而日序较晚的区域从乌鲁木齐市以南的大部区域缩小至乌鲁木齐市周围.随着突变年后≥12 ℃初日逐年提前,大部县市棉花适宜播期在4月22—28日,采用地膜播种可使适宜播期提前至4月15—21日.

Abstract: Based on the meteorological date acquired from 11 meteorological stations in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain during 1971-2010 and by using the methods of linear regression, ttest technique and IDW interpolation, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution of each tenday average temperature from late March to late April and beginning date of ≥12 ℃ to understand the effect of climate change on the cotton seeding date. Results showed that each tenday average temperature from late March to late April increased by 0.8, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.5 ℃·(10 a)-1, but the beginning date of ≥12 ℃ advanced by 0.5 d·(10 a)-1 during 1971-2010. All meteorological elements in this research ascended abruptly in the 1990s. The abrupt climate change made each tenday average temperature increasing by 2.5, 1.9, 1.1 and 1.5 ℃, to 7.2, 10.0, 13.2 and 15.6 ℃, respectively from late March to late April. The high values of each tenday average temperature from late March to late April expanded the scope of main cotton producing areas in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain, such as Wusu, Sawan and Manasi, and the low values were observed in Urmuqi. The spatial distribution of the beginning day of ≥12 ℃ was significant different in different regions. During this study period, the early beginning dates of ≥12 ℃ expanded the scope of Jinghe and Manasi as cotton producing areas, and the late beginning dates of ≥12 ℃ narrowed to areas around Urumqi. With the advance of the beginning day of ≥12 ℃, the seeding date of cotton could start from 22nd to 28th April in most of the counties, and mulch cover could bring forward the suitable sowing date to 15th through 21st April.