祁连山大通河流域青杄种群年龄结构与动态

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202506.008

应用生态学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1740-1748.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202506.008

祁连山大通河流域青杄种群年龄结构与动态

张荣霞¹, 关晋宏^1,2, 谢惠春^1,2,3, 马永贵^1,3, 张金峰^1,2,3*

¹青海师范大学生命科学学院/高原科学与可持续发展研究院, 西宁 810008;
²青海省青藏高原生物多样性形成机制与综合利用重点实验室, 西宁 810008;
³青海祁连山南坡森林生态系统国家定位观测研究站, 青海互助 810500

收稿日期:2025-02-17 接受日期:2025-04-22 出版日期:2025-06-18 发布日期:2025-12-18
通讯作者: *E-mail: 20231034@qhnu.edu.cn
作者简介:张荣霞, 女, 1997年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事种群生态学研究。E-mail: 13765291174@163.com
基金资助:
国家林业和草原局软科学项目(2024131027)和青海省科技厅自然科学基金青年项目(2022-ZJ-963Q)

Age structure and dynamics of Picea wilsonii population in Datong River basin of Qilian Mountains, China

ZHANG Rongxia¹, GUAN Jinhong^1,2, XIE Huichun^1,2,3, MA Yonggui^1,3, ZHANG Jinfeng^1,2,3*

¹College of Life Sciences/Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China;
²Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Qinghai Province, Xining 810008, China;
³Qilian Mountain Southern Slope Forest Ecosystem Research Station, Huzhu 810500, Qinghai, China

Received:2025-02-17 Accepted:2025-04-22 Online:2025-06-18 Published:2025-12-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文以祁连山大通河流域青杄种群为研究对象,构建静态生命表和存活曲线,结合生存函数、谱分析、时间序列模型等方法分析青杄种群年龄结构、动态演变规律及未来发展方向。结果表明: 基于胸径(DBH)以5 cm为间隔的上限包含法,可将青杄种群划分为15个龄级(Ⅰ～ⅩⅤ),对应幼龄(0 cm<DBH≤20 cm,Ⅰ～Ⅳ)、中龄(20 cm<DBH≤40 cm,Ⅴ～Ⅷ)、成龄(40 cm<DBH≤60 cm,Ⅸ～Ⅻ)和老龄(DBH>60 cm,ⅩⅢ～ⅩⅤ)4个生长阶段。青杄种群个体数量随龄级增大呈递减趋势,幼龄个体占比达58.3%,表明种群处于幼林恢复期。在整个生命周期内,青杄种群自然状态动态量值(V_pi)和干扰状态动态量值(V_pi′)均大于0,但V_pi′远小于V_pi,显示出种群兼具增长潜力与生态脆弱性的双重特性。种群的存活曲线符合Deevey-Ⅱ型B₁亚型,表现为存活率沿理论对角线波动,各发育阶段间存活数相差较大。生存函数曲线显示,青杄种群个体数量呈前期增长、中期大幅减少、后期逐步衰退的动态模式。谱分析表明,种群动态受基波主导并叠加小周期扰动。幼、中龄阶段末期是构成数量波动的关键节点。时间序列预测模型显示,未来10个龄级周期内,Ⅲ～Ⅵ龄级个体递减,而Ⅶ～ⅩⅤ龄级持续增长。综上,祁连山大通河流域青杄种群为稳定增长型种群,只要未来不遭受强烈干扰,青杄林会向成熟林发展。

关键词: 青杄, 静态生命表, 数量动态量化, 生存函数, 谱分析, 时间序列预测

Abstract: Taking Picea wilsonii population in the Datong River basin of the Qilian Mountains as research object, we analyzed the age structure, population dynamics, and future development trends of the population by constructing static life tables and survival curves, and combining with survival functions, spectral analysis, and time series models. The results showed that based on the inclusive upper limit method with 5 cm diameter at breast height (DBH) intervals, P. wilsonii population was classified into 15 age classes (Ⅰ-ⅩⅤ), corresponding to four growth stages: juvenile (0 cm<DBH≤20 cm, Ⅰ-Ⅳ), middle-aged (20 cm<DBH≤40 cm, Ⅴ-Ⅷ), mature (40 cm<DBH≤60 cm, Ⅸ-Ⅻ), and old-aged (DBH>60 cm, ⅩⅢ-ⅩⅤ). The abundance of P. wilsonii decreased with age, with juveniles accounting for 58.3%, indicating that the population was in the juvenile forest restoration phase. Throughout the life cycle, both the natural-state dynamic index (V_pi) and disturbance-state dynamic index (V_pi′) were greater than 0, but V_pi′ was significantly lower than V_pi, reflecting the dual characteristics of growth potential and ecological vulnerability. The survival curve conformed to the Deevey-Ⅱ B₁ subtype, characterized by survival rates fluctuating around the theoretical diagonal and significant differed in survival numbers between developmental stages. Survival function curves revealed a dynamic pattern of initial growth, mid-phase sharp decline, and late-phase gradual recession in population size. Spectral analysis indicated that population dynamics was dominated by the fundamental wave with minor periodic disturbances, and that the late juvenile and middle-aged stages were critical nodes for population fluctuations. Time series predictions showed that within the next 10 age-class periods, individuals in age classes Ⅲ-Ⅵ would decrease, while those in classes Ⅶ-ⅩⅤ would continue to grow. In conclusion, P. wilsonii population in the Datong River basin of Qilian Mountains is a stable and growing population. If not subjected to severe disturbances, it would develop into a mature forest.

Key words: Picea wilsonii, static life table, quantitative dynamic quantification, survival function, spectral analysis, time series prediction

张荣霞, 关晋宏, 谢惠春, 马永贵, 张金峰. 祁连山大通河流域青杄种群年龄结构与动态[J]. 应用生态学报, 2025, 36(6): 1740-1748.

ZHANG Rongxia, GUAN Jinhong, XIE Huichun, MA Yonggui, ZHANG Jinfeng. Age structure and dynamics of Picea wilsonii population in Datong River basin of Qilian Mountains, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2025, 36(6): 1740-1748.

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祁连山大通河流域青杄种群年龄结构与动态

Age structure and dynamics of Picea wilsonii population in Datong River basin of Qilian Mountains, China

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