Abstract: Long-term high-intensity agricultural development in the Sanjiang Plain has led to land use change, triggering prominent issues such as landscape fragmentation and degradation of ecosystem services. To explore the ecological evolution laws and regulation pathways under human activity disturbance, based on multi-source data on land use from 2010 to 2020, we comprehensively utilized the PLUS model, InVEST model, and a dual-dimensional ecological risk framework of “structure+conversion” to quantitatively assess and simulate landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service evolution under multiple scenarios (natural development, urban development, farmland protection, and ecological protection) by 2030, and delineated the coupled management and control zones. The results showed that from 2010 to 2020, land use change was primarily characterized by the bidirectional transfer farmland and ecological land, with landscape ecological risks continuously rising, and overall declines in ecosystem service supply such as habitat quality and carbon storage. By 2030, the area of high-risk zone under the natural development scenario surged by 13.7% compared to 2020, while the ecological protection scenario effectively curbed ecological degradation, achieving an optimal balance between ecological risk prevention and control and ecosystem service maintenance. The ecological risk-ecosystem service coupled zones exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with “low risk-low supply” concentrated in the northern part of the study area, and a spatial conflict pattern of “high risk-high supply” concentrated in the central-eastern and southern forest edges. This study would provide scientific supports for ecological early warning and territorial spatial zoning and management in black soil regions.

Key words: Sanjiang Plain, PLUS model, landscape ecological risk, ecosystem service, ecological zoning control