Variation of active layer thickness and the driving factors in the permafrost region of the Daxing’anling Mountains, Northeast China

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202606.013

Abstract

Abstract: The Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region, located at the southern margin of the Eurasian mid-to-high latitude permafrost belt, is a critical response area for permafrost degradation under global warming. However, the spatiotemporal variation patterns and driving mechanisms of its active layer thickness (ALT) remain to be further clarified. Based on the Stefan equation and structural equation model (SEM), combined with multi-source data, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of ALT in the Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region from 1982 to 2022. The results showed that the multi-year average ALT from 1982 to 2022 in the Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region was 141.55±38.09 cm. The average ALT values for the extensive continuous permafrost zone, the extensive-island permafrost zone, and the island, sporadic and scattered permafrost zone were 107.28±12.43 cm, 125.04±14.92 cm, and 165.54±35.63 cm, respectively. Temporally, the ALT in the study area increased significantly at a rate of 0.44±0.20 cm·a^-1, indicating a continuous degradation trend of permafrost over the past 40 years. Meanwhile, the thickening rate of ALT increased from 0.30±0.05 cm·a^-1 in the northern extensive continuous permafrost zone to 0.53±0.21 cm·a^-1 in the southern island, sporadic, and scattered permafrost zone. SEM analysis revealed that mean annual air temperature exerted a significant driving effect on ALT changes (total effect was 0.79), soil moisture showed a significant inhibitory effect (total effect was -0.41), and that air temperature, precipitation, and vegetation cover jointly influenced ALT dynamics through complex interactions. In conclusion, the ALT in the Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region thickened significantly from 1982 to 2022, with a clear permafrost degradation trend that intensified from north to south, and its change was primarily regulated by the combined effects of air temperature and soil moisture. This study would provide a scientific basis for monitoring mid-to-high latitude permafrost degradation and assessing its ecological and environmental effects.

Key words: permafrost degradation, active layer thickness, Stefan equation, spatiotemporal variation, structural equation modeling

CHEN Zhuxin, SONG Yingjie, LI Jianuo, ZHANG Bo, HUANG Ziyan, GUO Meng. Variation of active layer thickness and the driving factors in the permafrost region of the Daxing’anling Mountains, Northeast China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2026, 37(6): 1924-1932.

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