碳中和目标下中国森林固碳量跨期分配及成本

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202209.027

应用生态学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 2413-2421.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202209.027

碳中和目标下中国森林固碳量跨期分配及成本

张祥华^1,2, 秦会艳¹, 黄颖利^1*, 黄亚楠^2,3, 乔振华¹

¹东北林业大学经济管理学院, 哈尔滨 150040;
²瓦格宁根大学与研究中心土壤物理与土地管理组, 瓦格宁根 6700 AA;
³西北农林科技大学资源环境学院, 陕西杨凌 712100

收稿日期:2021-10-13 接受日期:2022-06-30 出版日期:2022-09-15 发布日期:2023-03-15
通讯作者: * E-mail: ylhuangnefu@163.com
作者简介:张祥华, 男, 1991年生, 博士研究生。主要从事碳汇经济领域研究。E-mail: zhangxianghua_dl@163.com
基金资助:
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(21JLB084)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金D类项目(2572020DZ09,2572020DY06)资助。

Intertemporal allocation and cost of forest carbon sequestration in China under the carbon neutrality target

ZHANG Xiang-hua^1,2, QIN Hui-yan¹, HUANG Ying-li^1*, HUANG Ya-nan^2,3, QIAO Zhen-hua¹

¹School of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China;
²Soil Physics and Land Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen 6700 AA, Netherlands;
³College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China

Received:2021-10-13 Accepted:2022-06-30 Online:2022-09-15 Published:2023-03-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国实现碳中和路线图的“碳排放达峰”、“快速降低碳排放”、“深度脱碳实现碳中和”3阶段具有复杂且差异的减排形势。森林固碳作为我国实现碳中和目标的重要手段,其跨期分配是平衡产业减排与森林固碳关系、降低我国实现碳中和的成本代价、以最优成本分步实现碳中和目标的重要途径。本研究从成本优化分配理论出发,引入森林边际固碳成本理论,结合国内现有产业边际减排理论,对我国实现碳中和3个阶段的成本变化过程进行模拟。结果表明: 我国在“碳排放达峰”、“快速降低碳排放”、“深度脱碳实现碳中和”3个阶段,实现成本最优的森林年固碳量分别为0.20、7.75、19.82亿t,分别占当期总减排量的1.8%、17.5%、37.6%。相较于仅依赖产业减排,在成本最优设计下发挥森林固碳成本优势,使得碳中和3个阶段的总成本分别降低0.48、791.36、9092.53亿美元。在“碳排放达峰”阶段,森林固碳的成本优势十分有限,应当主要依靠产业减排;在“快速降低碳排放”阶段,森林固碳的成本优势逐渐凸显;在“深度脱碳实现碳中和”阶段,应当充分发挥森林固碳的成本优势实现“零碳”目标,否则将会面临十分高昂的成本代价,尤其对于脱碳成本十分高昂或永远无法完全脱碳的产业。最优成本设计下森林固碳可以节约9884.37亿美元的碳中和成本。

关键词: 边际固碳成本, 森林固碳, 碳中和, 跨期分配

Abstract: The situations are complex and variant in the three stages of “carbon emission peak”, “rapid reduction of carbon emission” and “deep decarbonization for carbon neutrality” in China’s carbon neutralization roadmap. Forest carbon sequestration is an important means to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization in China. Its intertemporal allocation is a vital way to balance industrial emission reduction and forest carbon sequestration, reduce the cost of carbon neutrality, and gradually achieve the goal of carbon neutrality based on optimal cost. Based on the cost optimization allocation theory, we simulated the cost change process of three stages of carbon neutralization in China by quoting the theory of marginal carbon sequestration cost and combining with the existing domestic marginal abatement cost theory. The results showed that annual forest carbon sequestrations with the optimal cost in China was 20 million t, 775 million t and 1.982 billion t respectively in the three stages of “carbon emission peak”, “rapid reduction of carbon emission” and “deep decarbonization for carbon neutrality”, accounting for 1.8%, 17.5%, and 37.6% of the total emission reduction in each period. Compared with the way relying only on industrial emission reduction, forest carbon sequestration under the optimal cost design reduced the total cost by 48, 79136, and 909253 million US$ in the three stages of carbon neutralization, respectively. Due to the limited cost advantage of forest carbon sequestration, industrial emission reduction should be emphasized in the “carbon emission peak” stage. In the “rapid reduction of carbon emissions” stage, the cost advantage of forest carbon sequestration will be increasingly prominent. In the stage of “deep decarbonization for carbon neutrality”, it is necessary to fully exploit the cost advantage of forest carbon sequestration to achieve the goal of “zero carbon” to avoid the risk of high costs, especially for industries with high decarbonization cost or that will never be completely decarbonized. The optimal cost design for forest carbon sequestration can save 988.437 billion US in carbon-neutral costs.

Key words: marginal carbon sequestration cost, forest carbon sequestration, carbon neutrality, intertemporal allocation

张祥华, 秦会艳, 黄颖利, 黄亚楠, 乔振华. 碳中和目标下中国森林固碳量跨期分配及成本[J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(9): 2413-2421.

ZHANG Xiang-hua, QIN Hui-yan, HUANG Ying-li, HUANG Ya-nan, QIAO Zhen-hua. Intertemporal allocation and cost of forest carbon sequestration in China under the carbon neutrality target[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2022, 33(9): 2413-2421.

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碳中和目标下中国森林固碳量跨期分配及成本

Intertemporal allocation and cost of forest carbon sequestration in China under the carbon neutrality target

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