干旱胁迫下珠江流域植被响应的滞后效应及损失概率评估

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202404.026

应用生态学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 1083-1091.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202404.026

干旱胁迫下珠江流域植被响应的滞后效应及损失概率评估

龚郑洁¹, 雷勇², 钟露露¹, 武传号^3,4*

¹暨南大学生命科学技术学院, 广州 510632;
²珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院, 广州 510640;
³河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室, 南京 210098;
⁴河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院, 南京 210098

收稿日期:2023-11-15 接受日期:2024-02-24 出版日期:2024-04-18 发布日期:2024-10-18
通讯作者: * E-mail: wuch0907@hotmail.com
作者简介:龚郑洁, 女, 2000年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事水文与水资源研究。E-mail: 3288053877@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(52279016)和广东省自然科学基金项目(2023A1515011760)

Assessment of the lagging effect of vegetation response and loss probability in the Pearl River basin under drought stress

GONG Zhengjie¹, LEI Yong², ZHONG Lulu¹, WU Chuanhao^3,4*

¹College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China;
²Pearl River Water Conservancy Research Institute, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou 510640, China;
³National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
⁴Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received:2023-11-15 Accepted:2024-02-24 Online:2024-04-18 Published:2024-10-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和归一化植被指数(NDVI),在网格尺度上定量识别珠江流域植被对干旱响应的滞后时间;基于贝叶斯理论和二维联合分布构建了干旱胁迫下植被损失的条件概率模型,定量评估了不同干旱情景下4种植被类型(常绿阔叶林、混交林、草地、耕地)的损失风险的空间分异性。结果表明: 1982—2020年间,西江流域东部、北江和东江流域上游以及珠三角南部地区的干旱风险明显高于研究区的其他区域;上游高海拔地区植被对干旱的响应时间(大多<3个月)通常小于低海拔地区(>8个月);干旱加剧了植被的脆弱性,其中,混交林在不同干旱强度下的损失概率大于其他3种植被类型,表现出更高的脆弱性;流域西北部植被损失概率低于流域中部地区。

关键词: 归一化植被指数, 标准化降水蒸散指数, Copula函数, 植被响应滞后, 损失概率

Abstract: We quantified the lag time of vegetation response to drought in the Pearl River basin (PRB) based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and constructed a vegetation loss probability model under drought stress based on the Bayesian theory and two-dimensional joint distribution. We further quantitatively evaluated the spatial variations of loss probability of four vegetation types (evergreen broadleaf forest, mixed forest, grassland, and cropland) under different drought intensities. The results showed that the drought risk in eastern West River, the upper reaches of North River and East River, and southern Pearl River Delta was obviously higher than that in other regions during 1982-2020. The response time of vegetation to drought in high-altitude areas in the upper reaches of PRB (mostly<3 month) was generally shorter than that in low altitude areas (>8 month). Drought exacerbated the probability of vegetation loss, with higher vulnerability of mixed forest than the other three vegetation types. The loss probability of vegetation was lower in northwestern PRB than that in central PRB.

Key words: normalized difference vegetation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, Copula function, lagging of vegetation response, probability of loss

龚郑洁, 雷勇, 钟露露, 武传号. 干旱胁迫下珠江流域植被响应的滞后效应及损失概率评估[J]. 应用生态学报, 2024, 35(4): 1083-1091.

GONG Zhengjie, LEI Yong, ZHONG Lulu, WU Chuanhao. Assessment of the lagging effect of vegetation response and loss probability in the Pearl River basin under drought stress[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2024, 35(4): 1083-1091.

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干旱胁迫下珠江流域植被响应的滞后效应及损失概率评估

Assessment of the lagging effect of vegetation response and loss probability in the Pearl River basin under drought stress

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