广州市生态系统健康评价与生态修复策略

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202507.025

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 广州作为粤港澳大湾区的中心城市,其生态系统的健康状况是城市未来可持续发展的基础。为准确评估和预测不同情景下生态系统未来的健康状况,本研究基于广州市2000—2020年土地利用和生态系统健康动态演变特征,通过耦合多项式模型、InVEST模型、PLUS模型和活力-组织力-弹性评价模型,在自然发展、城镇发展和生态保护情景下对广州市未来生态系统健康状况进行预测和评价,并基于现有政策进一步划分生态修复分区。结果表明: 2000—2020年,广州市生态系统健康平均值由0.581降低到0.546,空间上保持南北高、中部低的健康格局。在自然发展、生态保护和城镇发展的情景下,广州市2030年生态系统健康平均值分别为0.574、0.576和0.570,空间上均呈林地恶化、耕地稳定、水域和南部城镇改善的变化特征。针对预测结果与不同用地类型间健康变化的差异,本研究结合现有城市规划,设计了生态系统重塑区、提升区和稳定区3种生态修复分区,可为广州生态修复和城市规划提供参考。

关键词: 生态系统健康, InVEST模型, PLUS模型, 情景预测, 广州市

Abstract: As the central city of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou’s ecosystem health forms the foundation for the city’s future sustainable development.To accurately assess and forecast future ecosystem health under different scenarios, based on land use data and the dynamic evolution characteristics of ecosystem health in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2020, we utilized a coupling of polynomial models, InVEST model, PLUS model and vigor-organization-resilience model to forecast and assess future ecosystem health under three scenarios: natural development, urban development, and ecological protection. Additionally based on the existing policies, ecological restoration zones were delineated. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the average ecosystem health value in Guangzhou decreased from 0.581 to 0.546, maintaining a healthy pattern of high in the north and south and low in the middle spatially. Under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and urban development, the average ecosystem health value of Guangzhou in 2030 was predicted to be 0.574, 0.576, and 0.570, respectively, showing spatial characteristics of forest degradation, farmland stability, and improvement of water and southern urban areas. Based on the predicted results and the differences in ecosystem health changes among various land use types, and by integrating existing urban planning, we designed three ecological restoration zones: ecosystem reshaping zone, ecosystem improvement zone, and ecosystem stability zone, which could provide guidance for ecological restoration and urban planning in Guangzhou.

Key words: ecosystem health, InVEST model, PLUS model, scenario simulation, Guangzhou

王语尚, 王晓佳, 湛茜文, 熊咏梅, 董璇, 宋朗兮, 臧传富. 广州市生态系统健康评价与生态修复策略[J]. 应用生态学报, 2025, 36(7): 2159-2170.

WANG Yu-shang, WANG Xiaojia, ZHAN Qianwen, XIONG Yongmei, DONG Xuan, SONG Langxi, ZANG Chuanfu. Ecosystem health assessment and ecological restoration strategies for Guangzhou City, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2025, 36(7): 2159-2170.

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