关键词: 玛纳斯河流域, 生态安全评价, 层次分析, 模糊综合评判, 森林火灾, 碳排放, 含碳气体排放, 小兴安岭, 林火管理措施

Abstract: By using analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
, an index system for ecological safety assessment was built, and 18 indices in
the aspects of water resource, environment, and social economy were selected to
assess the ecological safety of Manas River Basin oasis in 2006. In the study ar
ea, the ecological situation in 2006 was basically safe, with the membership deg
ree being 03347 and the integrated evaluation score being 0551. The water re
source safety index, social economy index, and environmental safety index were i
n the levels of relatively safe, extremely safe, and unsafe, respectively. Water
 resource index could represent the sustainable development degree of oasis, whi
le social economy index and environment safety index could indicate the oasis de
velopment level and environment situation, respectively. These three indices cou
ld most reflect the ecological safety level of the oasis.

Key words: Manas River Basin, ecological safety assessment, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, forest fire, carbon emission, carbonaceous gases emission, Xiao Xing’an Mountain, forest fire management measure.