关键词: 兴安落叶松, 年龄预测, 逐步回归, 机器学习

Abstract: To accurately estimate the age of individual tree and to achieve full-cycle sustainable management of natural Larix gmelinii forest in Great Xing'an Mountains of northeastern China, we constructed individual tree age prediction model using stepwise regression and random forest algorithms based on 44 fixed plots data and 280 stan-dard tree cores obtained from the Pangu Forest Farm. We analyzed the influence of stand structure, site conditions, and competition index on the accuracy of model prediction. The model was evaluated by the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results showed that the random forest model had the highest prediction accuracy when number of decision trees was 1500 and number of node con-tention variables was 8. The random forest model had better accuracy and prediction ability than the stepwise regression model, with R², RMSE and MAE of 0.5882, 9.9259 a, 8.1155 a. Diameter at breast height was the most important factor affecting age prediction (83.8%), followed by tree height (34.4%), elevation (17.9%), and basal area per hectare (17.5%). The random forest algorithm exhibited better adaptability and modeling effect on constructing a predictive model for individual tree age. This research contributed to improving the accuracy of growth and harvest estimation for L. gmelinii, and could provide a reference for other scientific studies related to tree age estimation in forests.

Key words: Larix gmelinii, age prediction, step regression, machine learning