关键词: 系统动力学, 水环境承载力, 模拟与预测, 辽宁省, 陕南秦巴山区, 水稻, 施肥, 评价

Abstract: By the methods of system dynamics, a water environmental carrying capa
city (WECC) model was constructed, and the dynamic trend of the WECC in Liaoning
 Province was simulated by using this model, in combining with analytical hierar
chy process (AHP) and the vector norm method. It was predicted that under the co
nditions of maintaining present development schemes, the WECC in this province i
n 2000〖KG-*2〗-〖KG-*7〗2050 would be decreased year after year. Only increasin
g water resources supply while not implementing scientific and rational manageme
nt of water environment could not improve the regional WECC, and the integration
 of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastew
ater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the only effective way to
improve the WECC and the coordinated development of economy, society, and enviro
nment in Liaoning.

Key words: system dynamics, water environmental carrying capacity, simulation and prediction, Liaoning Province, Qin-Ba mountainous area of southern Shaanxi, rice, fertilization, evaluation.