关键词: 枸杞, MaxEnt模型, 适生区, 气候变化

Abstract: The unique climatic conditions of Qinghai are highly suitable for the growth of goji berry (Lycium barbarum), with superior yield and quality to other production areas. Screening areas with similar conditions can guide the scientific cultivation of high-yield and high-quality goji berry, thereby increasing income. Based on the climatic characteristics of Qinghai production area, we utilized the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to identify the key meteorological factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats and to predict suitable distribution areas under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the optimized feature combination was linear and quadratic, and the regularization multiplier was 0.5, with both the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the subject and true skill statistic values being greater than 0.90, indicating highly accurate and reliable prediction. The key meteorological factors affecting the distribution of high-yield and high-quality goji berry were mean diurnal temperature range (suitable range was 12.94-19.08 ℃) and maximum temperature of warmest month (19.01-28.32 ℃). Under current climatic conditions, the area of suitable habitat for high-yield and high-quality goji berry in China was 42.69×10⁴ km², primarily distributed in the Qaidam Basin of Qinghai, the northwest and the foothills of the Qilian Mountains of Gansu, the foothills of Kunlun Mountains and Altai Mountains in Xinjiang, and the central-western part of Xizang. In the future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s), the area of suitable habitat for high-yield and high-quality goji berry was larger than the current ones, showing an eastward expansion trend. The area of suitable habitats reached its maximum under the SSP585 (59.26×10⁴ km²) and SSP370 scenarios (58.51×10⁴ km²), respectively. Temperature was the key meteorological factor influencing the distribution of high-yield and high-quality goji berry. Climate warming would cause the expansion of suitable habitat eastward, benefiting its cultivation.

Key words: Lycium barbarum, MaxEnt model, suitable habitat, climate change