基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化对黑颈鹤栖息地分布的影响

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202504.032

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在全球气候变化背景下,物种栖息地分布变化已成为生物多样性面临的主要威胁之一。本文利用MaxEnt模型,基于黑颈鹤分布点和环境变量,模拟预测了黑颈鹤在当代气候以及未来3种气候模式下(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)潜在栖息地的变化。结果表明: 1)海拔、气温年较差、最湿季平均气温是影响黑颈鹤潜在适宜繁殖地分布的主要环境因子,而黑颈鹤越冬地则受等温性、海拔、气温年较差等因素的显著影响。2)在当代气候下,黑颈鹤繁殖地主要分布在中国的新疆、甘肃、青海、西藏、四川,以及印度,高适宜繁殖地面积27.07×10⁴ km²;越冬地主要分布于中国西藏、四川、云南,以及不丹、尼泊尔、印度和缅甸,高适宜越冬地面积21.15×10⁴ km²。3)在未来气候模式下,黑颈鹤的潜在适宜栖息地分布区域总体稳定,稳定区面积保留率高于80%。其中繁殖地面积呈增加趋势,而越冬地面积呈减少趋势。4)在不同气候情景下,黑颈鹤繁殖地质心整体上向东南方向迁移,而越冬地质心主要向西迁移,迁徙距离可能缩短。本研究基于未来气候情景预测了黑颈鹤大区域范围内潜在适宜栖息地的变化,揭示了气候变化对其物种分布的影响,可为黑颈鹤保护及相关策略的制定提供科学依据。

关键词: 黑颈鹤, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 潜在栖息地, 生物多样性保护

Abstract: Under the context of global climate change, the shifts in suitable habitats of different species have become one of the major threats to biodiversity. We simulated the distribution habitats of Grus nigricollis under current climatic condition and predicted potential changes under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) with the MaxEnt model based on the distribution records of G. nigricollis and environmental variables. The results showed that: 1) Elevation, annual temperature range, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of potential breeding habitats for G. nigricollis, while the wintering habitats were significantly influenced by factors such as isothermality, elevation, and temperature annual range. 2) Under the current climate condition, the breeding habitats of G. nigricollis were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, Sichuan of China, as well as India, with a highly suitable breeding area of 27.07×10⁴ km². The wintering grounds were primarily located in Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan of China, as well as Bhutan, Nepal, India, and Myanmar, with a highly suitable wintering area of 21.15×10⁴ km². 3) Under future climate scenarios, the overall potential suitable habitats for G. nigricollis remained stable, with the retention rate of stable areas exceeding 80%. Among these, the breeding habitats showed an increasing trend, while the wintering habitats exhibited a decreasing trend. 4) Under different climate scenarios, the centroid of breeding ground of G. nigricollis would gene-rally move southeastward, while the centroid of wintering ground mainly moved westward, potentially reducing migration distance. By predicting the changes in the potential suitable habitat for G. nigricollis on a large regional scale under future climate scenarios and revealing the impact of climate change on their distribution, this study could provide a scientific basis for the conservation of G. nigricollis and the formulation of relevant strategies.

Key words: Grus nigricollis, MaxEnt model, climate change, potential habitat, biodiversity conservation

罗才红, 汪皖渝, 黄金夏, 王鹏, 马茂华, 陈吉龙, 赵存峰. 基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化对黑颈鹤栖息地分布的影响[J]. 应用生态学报, 2025, 36(4): 1251-1260.

LUO Caihong, WANG Wanyu, HUANG Jinxia, WANG Peng, MA Maohua, CHEN Jilong, ZHAO Cunfeng. Predicting the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of Grus nigricollis based on the MaxEnt model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2025, 36(4): 1251-1260.

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