Simulation of land use and assessment of ecosystem service value in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province, China

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202310.025

Abstract

Abstract: Simulating the change of ecosystem service values (ESV) caused by land use/cover change (LUCC) in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province is of great significance for regional sustainable development and ecological security. Based on remote sensing images of land use and Statistics Yearbook of 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the influence of LUCC on ESV in the study area during 2000-2020. We used the PLUS model to simulate land use change under three scenarios, including inertial development, ecological protection, and urban development in 2030, analyzed the spatial distribution and concentration degree of ESVs based on grid scale, and clarified the sensitivity characteristics of ESVs. The results showed that the construction land area showed an increasing trend during 2000-2020. The area of forest, cultivated land and water decreased significantly, resulting in a continuous downward trend of ESVs, which decreased by 160×10⁸ yuan. Under the simulation of three scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, and urban development, the construction land area would increase by 93624, 54927, and 111966 hm², respectively. The eastern plain would become the agglomeration area of construction land expansion. The ESVs of those three scenarios was 1693×10⁸, 1729×10⁸, and 1688×10⁸ yuan, respectively, which were all lower than the ESVs of the study area in 2020. The decline rate of ESV in the ecological protection scenario slowed down. The spatial distribution of ESVs in the study area was high in the west and low in the east. Hot spots and cold spots of ESVs were distributed in a large range with strong agglomeration. Hot spots were mainly concentrated in the west, while cold spots were mainly distributed in the east and north.

Key words: land use change, patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, multi-scenario simulation, ecosystem service value, the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province

TAN Zhaozhao, CHEN Yuqiu, DING Jingfeng, LIU Mengdi, WANG Hao, WANG Jiang. Simulation of land use and assessment of ecosystem service value in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2023, 34(10): 2777-2787.

References

[1] MA MEA. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. A Report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Washington DC: Island Press, 2005
[2] 谢高地, 张彩霞, 张雷明, 等. 基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(8): 1243-1254
[3] 高星, 刘泽伟, 李晨曦, 等. 基于“ 三生空间”的雄安新区土地利用功能转型与生态环境效应研究. 生态学报, 2020, 40(20): 7113-7122
[4] 高星, 杨刘婉青, 李晨曦, 等. 模拟多情景下白洋淀流域土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的空间响应.生态学报, 2021, 41(20): 7974-7988
[5] Liu YB, Hou XY, Li XW, et al. Assessing and predicting changes in ecosystem service values based on land use/cover change in the Bohai Rim coastal zone. Ecolo-gical Indicators, 2020, 111: 106004
[6] 杨光宗, 吕凯, 李峰. 基于格网尺度的南昌市土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值时空相关性分析. 中国土地科学, 2022, 36(8): 121-130
[7] 刘志涛, 王少剑, 方创琳. 粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务价值的时空演化及其影响机制. 地理学报, 2021, 76(11): 2797-2813
[8] Kindu M, Schneider T, Teketay D, et al. Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Science of the Total Environment, 2016, 547: 137-147
[9] Akhtar M, Zhao YY, Gao GL, et al. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem service values and hotspots in a dryland: A case-study in Pakistan. Land Degradation & Development, 2022, 33: 1383-1397
[10] Wu CY, Chen BW, Huang XJ, et al. Effect of land-use change and optimization on the ecosystem service values of Jiangsu Province, China. Ecological Indicators, 2020, 117: 106507
[11] 欧阳晓, 贺青云, 朱翔, 等. 多情景下模拟城市群土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响——以长株潭城市群为例. 经济地理, 2020, 40(1): 93-102
[12] Gao LN, Tao F, Liu RR, et al. Multi-scenario simulation and ecological risk analysis of land use based on the PLUS model: A case study of Nanjing. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2022, 85: 104055
[13] Liang X, Guan QF, Clarke KC, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan, China. Computers Environment and Urban Systems, 2021, 85: 101569
[14] 杨朔, 苏昊, 赵国平. 基于PLUS模型的城市生态系统服务价值多情景模拟——以汉中市为例. 干旱区资源与环境, 2022, 36(10): 86-95
[15] 潘艺, 鲍海君, 黄玲燕, 等. 浙江沿海城市化时空格局演变及其对生境质量的影响——基于InVEST模型的研究. 上海国土资源, 2020, 41(3): 18-24
[16] 王奇, 李伟芳, 寇相玮, 等. 甬台温海岸带景观格局及生态脆弱性时空演变特征. 水土保持通报, 2020, 40(1): 297-304
[17] 赵乐, 朱建玲, 刘南, 等. 浙江东部沿海城市建设用地空间结构分析. 经济地理, 2010, 30(3): 494-500
[18] 林耀奔, 叶艳妹, 杨建辉. 浙江省城市土地利用集约化与生态化协调性评价. 中国土地科学, 2019, 33(1): 65-72
[19] Yang J, Huang X. The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019. Earth System Science Data, 2019, 13: 3907-3925
[20] 王保盛, 廖江福, 祝薇, 等. 基于历史情景的FLUS模型邻域权重设置——以闽三角城市群2030年土地利用模拟为例. 生态学报, 2019, 39(12): 4284-4298
[21] 李琛, 高彬嫔, 吴映梅, 等. 基于PLUS模型的山区城镇景观生态风险动态模拟. 浙江农林大学学报, 2022, 39(1): 84-94
[22] 国家统计局农村社会经济调查司. 中国农产品价格调查年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2022
[23] 谢高地, 鲁春霞, 冷允法, 等. 青藏高原生态资产的价值评估. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(2): 189-196
[24] 谢高地, 肖玉, 甄霖, 等. 我国粮食生产的生态服务价值研究. 中国生态农业学报, 2005, 13(3): 10-13
[25] Getis A, Ord JK. The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Geographical Analysis, 1992, 24: 189-206
[26] 徐丽芬, 许学工, 罗涛, 等. 基于土地利用的生态系统服务价值当量修订方法——以渤海湾沿岸为例. 地理研究, 2012, 31(10): 1775-1784
[27] Li X, Fu JY, Jiang D, et al. Land use optimization in Ningbo City with a coupled GA and PLUS model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 375: 134004
[28] Xiao S, Fügener S, Wende W, et al. The dynamics of vegetation and implications for ecosystem services in the context of urbanisation: An example from Huangyan-Taizhou, China. Ecological Engineering, 2022, 179: 106614
[29] Zhang X, Liao LY, Xu ZD, et al. Interactive effects on habitat quality using InVEST and GeoDetector models in Wenzhou, China. Land, 2022, 11: 630
[30] 张晓瑶, 张潇, 李冬花, 等. 城市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值影响的多情景模拟——以深圳市为例. 生态学报, 2022, 42(6): 2086-2097
[31] Cao Y, Kong L, Zhang L, et al. The balance between economic development and ecosystem service value in the process of land urbanization: A case study of China’s land urbanization from 2000 to 2015. Land Use Policy, 2021, 108: 105536
[32] Andersson E, Langemeyer J, Borgstrom S, et al. Enabling green and blue infrastructure to improve contributions to human well-being and equity in urban systems. BioScience, 2019, 69: 566-574