Abstract: Land use change drives carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the spatio-temporal varia-tion of land use and carbon storage is important for improving carbon sink capacity and achieving the carbon neutrality goal. With InVEST-PLUS model, we evaluated spatio-temporal variation of land use change and ecosystem carbon storage in Hebei Province, explored their variations from 2000 to 2020, and predicted land use changes and carbon storage in 2040. The results showed that cultivated land, forest, and grassland were dominant vegetation types from 2000 to 2020. The area of cultivated land decreased by 7011.1 km², and the construction land increased by 7479.6 km². The conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the predominant form of land transfer. Carbon storage in Hebei decreased by 3.6×10⁷ t from 2000 to 2020, with the conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land being the main reason for such rapid decline of carbon storage. Carbon storage was higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. From 2020 to 2040, under natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario, and economic development scenario, the carbon storage of Hebei Province would increase by 4.0×10⁷, 5.1×10⁷, and 5.9×10⁷ t, respectively. The main carbon pools will still be cultivated land, forest, and grassland. In the future, it would be necessary to protect carbon sequestration resources such as forest and grassland, optimize land use pattern with the goal of reducing carbon emissions, and protect areas with high carbon density to further enhance their carbon sequestration capacity.

Key words: land use change, carbon storage, InVEST model, PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, Hebei Province