Abstract: Using remote sensing pictures acquired by Landsat TM1◊250000 and 1◊500000 in 1990s and GISdata,combining with the results of remote sensing investigation from 1970s to 1980s, the types of land cover,potential dynamics of desertification and sensitive factors in six counties of Kerqin sandy land were analyzed.From 1980s to 1990s.the desertification area in the region increased from 53% to 70%,forested land decreased by 10.7%,and grassland area increased by 8.38%,with a major increase of lowly covered land.Due to the increase of human population density by 10 persons·km^-2 in recent ten years,the cultivated land was increased by 7% on average.Population increase and human activities were the sensitive factors affecting the change of land cover.The analysis of natural factors influencing desertification shows that climate change might result in the processing of desertification,and human activity is the direct cause aggravating the desertification of Kerqin sandy land at modern time.The grey forecast shows that the human population would increase,and the desertification tended to increase or decrease after the year of 2000.

Key words: Remote sensing, GIS, Kerqin sandy land, Desertification, Grey forecast