Abstract: Plantation ecosystems are more vulnerable than natural ones to global climate change. Using the dendrochronology method, we established tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus tabuliformis distributed in the semi-arid region of Northeast China. We examined its growth dynamics, analyzed the relationship between radical growth and climate factors, and explored the effects of global warming on the growth and distribution of P. tabuliformis. The results showed that tree-ring width chronologies of P. tabuliformis were negatively correlated with mean temperature of growing season (May-July), and positively correlated with precipitation and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in the early growing season (April) and in the growing season (May-July). Water availability was the main limiting factor for the radial growth of P. tabuliformis. Along the increasing precipitation gradient from southwest to northeast, tree growth became more sensitive to annual mean temperature, and the correlation with annual precipitation shifted from positive to negative, indicating that tree growth in the relative arid area (southwest of the study area) was more severely restricted by water availability. Drought stress caused by climate warming resulted in growth declines at some sites in the southwest area. With the continuous warming-drying climate, the distribution boundary of P. tabuliformis in the study area would shrink locally, with the suitable growth boundary moving northward.

Key words: Pinus tabuliformis, warming-drying, radial growth, semi-arid region