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应用生态学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 3185-3194.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202109.016

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于主成分分析的安徽省冬小麦气候灾损风险的时空演变

黄进1, 陈金华2, 张方敏1*   

  1. 1南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 南京 210044;
    2安徽省农村综合经济信息中心, 合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-15 接受日期:2021-06-07 出版日期:2021-09-15 发布日期:2022-03-15
  • 通讯作者: * E-mail: nfuecology@aliyun.com
  • 作者简介:黄 进, 男, 1983年生, 博士。主要从事气候变化与农业气象灾害诊断研究。E-mail: hjtyforlove@aliyun.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506606)资助

Spatio-temporal evolution of climate-induced reduction risk for winter wheat in Anhui Pro-vince based on principal component analysis

HUANG Jin1, CHEN Jin-hua2, ZHANG Fang-min1*   

  1. 1School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2Rural Comprehensive Economic Information Center of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:2021-03-15 Accepted:2021-06-07 Online:2021-09-15 Published:2022-03-15
  • Contact: * E-mail: nfuecology@aliyun.com
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Plan of China (2018YFC1506606)

摘要: 冬小麦是安徽省主要粮食作物之一,分析其气候灾损风险变化对保障区域粮食安全有着重要意义。依托安徽省74个区县1973—2014年间的冬小麦单产资料,通过气候减产率逐年序列提取了减产年次数、平均减产率、减产极值等9个评价指标,并采用主成分分析法分析安徽省冬小麦灾损风险的时空演变格局。结果表明: 研究期间,安徽省北部特别是沿淮地区为冬小麦气候灾损高风险区域;重心迁移模型显示,安徽省冬小麦气候减产率高值区域由北向南呈显著的移动趋势;全省冬小麦气候灾损风险呈显著的年代际变化,特别是21世纪初以来发生中度以上灾损强度的区县个数明显较少;S-模式主成分分析和气候减产率序列表明,1973—2014年间,安徽省北部地区冬小麦气候灾损风险呈下降趋势,南部地区呈上升趋势。安徽省冬小麦气候灾损风险呈现出明显的时空动态特征,其年代际波动和南北区域差异应引起重视。

关键词: 冬小麦, 安徽省, 气候灾损风险, 主成分分析

Abstract: Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Anhui Province, to analyze the spatial-temporal variations of climate-induced reduction risk is of great significance to ensure regional food security. Based on the data of winter wheat yield from 1973 to 2014 in 74 districts and counties, nine risk assessment indicators were extracted from annual series of climate-induced reduction rate, and the spatial-temporal variations of climate-induced reduction risk for winter wheat in Anhui was analyzed by using principal component analysis. The results showed that north Anhui, especially the region along Huaihe River, was the higher-risk area for climate-induced yield loss. Results of the barycenter migration model showed that the high value regions of climate-induced reduction rate of winter wheat in Anhui Province had a significant tendency of moving from north to south. In the whole province, climate-induced reduction risk of winter wheat presented a significant interdecadal variation. Furthermore, the number of districts and counties with moderate or more reduction intensity was significantly reducing since the 2000s. Results from S-mode principal component analysis and climate-induced reduction rate series showed that the climate-induced reduction risk for winter wheat in north Anhui had a downward trend and that in southern Anhui had an upward trend. Climate-induced reduction risk of winter wheat in Anhui had notable temporal and spatial variations, the interdecadal fluctuation and north-south regional difference of which should draw our attention.

Key words: winter wheat, Anhui Province, climate-induced reduction risk, principal component analysis