黄土高原极端气温变化特征及其与平均气温的相关性

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202207.024

应用生态学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (7): 1975-1982.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202207.024

黄土高原极端气温变化特征及其与平均气温的相关性

刘盼^1,2, 赵西宁^1,3*, 高晓东^1,3, 于流洋^1,2, 任敏^1,2

¹西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 陕西杨凌 712100;
²西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院, 陕西杨凌 712100;
³中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌 71210

收稿日期:2021-09-24 接受日期:2022-04-20 出版日期:2022-07-15 发布日期:2023-01-15
通讯作者: *E-mail: zxn@nwsuaf.edu.cn
作者简介:刘盼, 女, 1997年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事农业水土资源利用与保护研究。E-mail: 17320673435@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41771316)和陕西省重点研发计划项目(2020ZDLNY07-04)资助。

Characteristics of extreme temperature variation in the Loess Plateau and its correlation with average temperature

LIU Pan^1,2, ZHAO Xi-ning^1,3*, GAO Xiao-dong^1,3, YU Liu-yang^1,2, REN Min^1,2

¹Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Northwest A＆F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
²College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A＆F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
³Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China

Received:2021-09-24 Accepted:2022-04-20 Online:2022-07-15 Published:2023-01-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近几十年来,黄土高原极端气候频发,研究和预测极端气候的发生显得尤为重要。目前,关于极端气候的研究多关注事件本身的变化特征,而忽略了平均气温与其变化趋势的相关分析。本研究基于1986—2019年黄土高原79个气象站的逐日最高气温、最低气温和平均气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验以及Pearson相关分析方法,对黄土高原地区极端气温的变化趋势及其与平均气温的相关性进行研究。结果表明: 研究期间,黄土高原地区极端气温暖指数呈显著上升趋势,冷指数呈显著下降趋势,极端高温事件发生频率增加;大多极端气温指数在20世纪90年代中后期和2012年发生突变,且极端气温在1998—2012年整体呈现下降趋势,较好地响应了全球变暖停滞现象;平均气温在西部黄土高塬沟壑区、土石山区及河谷平原区的上升趋势较其他区域明显,且极端气温指数大幅变化趋势的站点几乎都发生在平均气温大幅上升的区域;平均气温的小幅上升显著增加了极端高温事件发生的频率,其中,极端低温的变化幅度和速率大于极端高温,气候变暖对极端气温指数产生了不同影响,平均气温的微小变化使得黄土高原整体气候分布向着更易发生热浪的方向转移。

关键词: 极端气候, 极端气温指数, 热浪, 冻害, 黄土高原

Abstract: In recent decades, extreme climate occurred frequently on the Loess Plateau. It is thus particularly important to study and predict the occurrence of extreme climate. Available researches on extreme climate mainly focus on the changing characteristics of the event itself, but ignore the correlation between average temperature and its changing trend. We used linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall test, sliding t test and Pearson correlation analy-sis to study the variation trend of extreme temperature and its correlation with average temperature on the Loess Plateau based on the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average temperature data of 79 meteo-rological stations from 1986 to 2019. The results showed that the extreme warmth index in the Loess Plateau region showed a significant upward trend, the extreme cold index showed a significant downward trend, and the frequency of extreme high temperature events increased. Most of the extreme temperature indices had abrupt changes in the middle and late 1990s and in 2012, and the extreme temperature showed a downward trend from 1998 to 2012, which better responded to the phenomenon of global warming hiatus. The increasing trend of mean temperature in the gully region, the rocky mountain region and the valley plain region was more obvious than that in other regions. The stations with large trend of extreme temperature index almost all occurred in the region with large increases of mean temperature. The increases of average temperature in small increments increased the frequency of extreme high temperature event, with the change range of extreme low temperature and its rate being greater than the extreme high temperature. Climate warming on extreme temperature index had a different effect, small changes in the average temperature in the Loess Plateau made the climate transfer towards the direction of more frequent heat.

Key words: extreme climate, extreme temperature index, heat wave, frost damage, Loess Plateau

刘盼, 赵西宁, 高晓东, 于流洋, 任敏. 黄土高原极端气温变化特征及其与平均气温的相关性[J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(7): 1975-1982.

LIU Pan, ZHAO Xi-ning, GAO Xiao-dong, YU Liu-yang, REN Min. Characteristics of extreme temperature variation in the Loess Plateau and its correlation with average temperature[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2022, 33(7): 1975-1982.

参考文献

[1] 秦大河. 气候变化科学与人类可持续发展. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(7): 874-883
[2] IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013
[3] Easterling DR, Evans JL, Grolsman PY, et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 2000, 81: 417-425
[4] Mearns LO, Katz RW, Schneider SH. Extreme high-temperature events: Changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature. Journal of Applied Meteoro-logy and Climatology, 1984, 23: 1601-1613
[5] Griffiths GM, Chambers LE, Haylock MR, et al. Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25: 1301-1330
[6] Wigley TML. The effect of changing climate on the frequency of absolute extreme events. Climatic Change, 2009, 97: 67-76
[7] Schar C, Vidale PL, Luthi D, et al. The role of increa-sing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature, 2004, 427: 332-336
[8] Ballester J, Rodo X, Giorgi F. Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming. Climate Dynamics, 2010, 35: 1191-1205
[9] 杨维涛, 孙建国, 康永泰, 等. 黄土高原地区极端气候指数时空变化. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(6): 1456-1466
[10] Sun W, Mu XM, Song XY, et al. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming. Atmospheric Research, 2015, 168: 33-48
[11] Asseng S, Foster I, Turner NC. The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Global Change Biology, 2011, 17: 997-1012
[12] Hadley SW, Erickson DJ, Hernandez JL, et al. Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33: L17703
[13] Zhang X, Yang F. RClimDex (1.0) User’s Manual. Vancouver, Canada: Climate Research Branch Environment Canada, 2004
[14] Hnutchison MF. Interpolating of rainfall data with thin plate smoothing splinesⅡ: Two dimensional smoothing of data with short range correlation. Journal of Geographic Information and Decision Analysis, 1998, 2: 152-167
[15] 陈中平, 徐强. Mann-Kendall检验法分析降水量时程变化特征. 科技通报, 2016, 32(6): 47-50
[16] 刘俊萍, 周俊杰, 邹先柏. 渭河流域宝鸡段气温及降水突变分析. 浙江工业大学学报, 2018, 46(4): 423-428
[17] Pettitt AN. A Non-Parametric Approach to the change-point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C: Applied Statistics, 1979, 28: 126-135
[18] Zou KH, Tuncali K, Silverman SG. Correlation and simple linear regression. Radiology, 2003, 227: 617-622
[19] 张照玺, 胡彩虹, 李世豪, 等. 黄河流域1961—2010年极端气温指数的时空变化特征. 气象与环境科学, 2015, 38(2): 48-53
[20] 张新宜, 周晓宇, 刘熠炎. 1954—2013年湖北省黄石市极值气温变化特征分析. 气象研究与应用, 2015, 36(2): 85-92
[21] Kosaka Y, Xie SP. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 2013, 501: 403-407
[22] Zhang Y, Gao Z, Pan Z, et al. Record-breaking temperatures in China during the warming and recent hiatus periods. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016, 121: 241-258
[23] Coumou D, Robinson A. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 2013, 8: 034018
[24] Lau NC, Nath MJ. A model study of heat waves over North America: Meteorological aspects and projections for the twenty-first century. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25: 4761-4784
[25] Argueso D, Di Luca A, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, et al. Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016, 43: 7653-7660
[26] Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, et al. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change, 2013, 119: 345-357
[27] Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, et al. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013, 118: 2473-2493
[28] Seneviratne SI, Luthi D, Litschi M, et al. Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 2006, 443: 205-209
[29] Fischer EM, Rajczak J, Schar C. Changes in European summer temperature variability revisited. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39: L19702
[30] Seneviratne S, Corti T, Davin EL, et al. Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 2010, 99: 125-161
[31] 李卓群, 刘星才. 1961—2019年辽宁省高温天气变化特征. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(11): 4059-4067
[32] Kerr RA. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science, 2009, 326: 28-29
[33] Xie YK, Huang JP, Liu YZ. From accelerated warming to warming hiatus in China. International Journal of Climatology, 2017, 37: 1758-1773
[34] 杜勤勤, 张明军, 王圣杰, 等. 中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应. 地理学报, 2018, 73(9): 1748-1764
[35] Li QX, Yang S, Xu WH, et al. China experiencing the recent warming hiatus. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, 42: 889-898
[36] Xie SP, Yu K. What caused the global surface warming hiatus of 1998-2013? Current Climate Change Reports, 2017, 3: 128-140
[37] 徐一丹, 李建平, 汪秋云, 等. 全球变暖停滞的研究进展回顾. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(2): 175-190
[38] 房世波, 阳晶晶, 周广胜. 30年来我国农业气象灾害变化趋势和分布特征. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(5): 69-73
[39] 刘杰, 许小峰, 罗慧. 极端天气气候事件影响我国农业经济产出的实证研究. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2012, 42(7): 1076-1082
[40] Fang SB, Cammarano D, Zhou GS, et al. Effects of increased day and night temperature with supplemental infrared heating on winter wheat growth in North China. European Journal of Agronomy, 2015, 64: 67-77
[41] Chen QL, Li Z, Fan GZ, et al. Indications of stratospheric anomalies in the freezing rain and snow disaster in South China. Science China Earth Sciences, 2011, 54: 1248-1256
[42] 王荣英, 李春强, 吴雁. 气候变化对果树冻害的影响及其防御对策. 安徽农业科学, 2012, 40(9): 5310-5312
[43] Augspurger CK. Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: Spring damage risk is increasing. Ecology, 2012, 94: 41-50

黄土高原极端气温变化特征及其与平均气温的相关性

Characteristics of extreme temperature variation in the Loess Plateau and its correlation with average temperature

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	吴应明, 韩璐, 刘柯言, 胡旭, 付照琦, 陈立欣. 晋西黄土区不同土壤水分条件下刺槐和侧柏人工林的水分利用来源 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2023, 34(3): 588-596.
[2]	王依瑞, 王彦辉, 段文标, 李平平, 于澎涛, 甄理, 李志鑫, 尚会军. 黄土高原刺槐人工林郁闭度对林下植物多样性特征的影响 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2023, 34(2): 305-314.
[3]	王彦峰, 肖波, 汪万福, 余星兴, 张雪. 黄土高原北部水蚀风蚀交错区苔藓多样性及苔藓结皮发育的微生境特征 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(7): 1729-1737.
[4]	温慧娴, 赵西宁, 高飞. 黄土高原不同降水量区苹果园土壤干燥化效应及生产水足迹模 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(7): 1927-1936.
[5]	王鑫, 王明田, 冯勇, 邹雨伽, 郭斌. 2001—2020年川西北高原归一化植被指数演变特征及其对极端气候的响应 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(7): 1957-1965.
[6]	张海龙, 武润琴, 李佳佳, 王睿强, 夏侯龙, 杨春霞, 上官周平. 根系分泌物C∶N对刺槐林地土壤理化特征和土壤呼吸的影响 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(4): 949-956.
[7]	贺鹏, 毕如田, 徐立帅, 王婧姝, 曹晨斌. 基于地理探测的黄土高原植被生长对气候的响应 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(2): 448-456.
[8]	曹银轩, 黄卓, 徐喜娟, 陈上, 王钊, 冯浩, 于强, 何建强. 黄土高原植被日光诱导叶绿素荧光对气象干旱的响应 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(2): 457-466.
[9]	朱颖, 库永丽, 刘金良, Le Thi Hien, 赵忠. 黄土高原天然和人工油松林根际土壤解磷细菌群落特征及其功能 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(9): 3097-3106.
[10]	孙倩倩, 刘超, 郑蓓君. 基于ICEEMDAN方法的黄土高原植被覆盖变化及其对气候变化的响应 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(6): 2129-2137.
[11]	霍娜, 黄菁华, 耿德洲, 王楠, 杨盼盼, 赵世伟. 黄土高原半干旱区不同苜蓿-作物种植方式下土壤线虫群落组成及代谢足迹 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(5): 1825-1834.
[12]	王国强, 姜基春, 焦峰. 延安市安塞区极端降水变化特征 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(4): 1417-1423.
[13]	侯青青, 裴婷婷, 陈英, 吉珍霞, 谢保鹏. 1986—2019年黄土高原干旱变化特征及趋势 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(2): 649-660.
[14]	高文波,林正雨,王明田,何鹏,陈春燕,刘远利,曹杰. 1971—2020年西南茶区灌木型茶树晚霜冻害危险性时空演变特征 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(11): 4029-4038.
[15]	李卓群,刘星才. 1961—2019年辽宁省高温天气变化特征 [J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(11): 4059-4067.