关键词: 潜在土地利用冲突, 多情景模拟, 三生空间, 西安市长安区

Abstract: Under the backgrounds of urbanization expansion, agricultural development transformation, and the steady advancement of ecological civilization construction, identifying and measuring land use conflicts in production-living-ecological overlapping spaces is crucial for the coordinated development of national land space. We integrated two potential land use conflicts identification methods: production-living-ecological functional characterization and multi-scenario simulation, incorporated ecological risk theory to develop a research framework based on scenario simulation-potential conflicts identification-potential conflicts measurement. We identified and measured potential land use conflicts in three scenarios for Chang’an District of Xi’an in 2030. The results showed that under the ecological bottom-line scenario, Chang’an District experienced the least land use change in 2030, maintaining a relatively stable regional ecological security level, with the smallest potential land use conflicts area of 198.91 km². Across the three scenarios, the area of living-ecological conflicts was significantly larger than that of production-ecological conflicts. The total area of comprehensive potential land use conflicts in Chang’an District was 332.93 km², with severe conflicts concentrated in the Qinling Mountains’ foothills, as well as the Fenghe and Juehe River basins, involving 35 villages.

Key words: potential land use conflict, multi-scenario simulation, production-living-ecological space, Chang’an District, Xi’an City