关键词: 黄河流域, 生态系统健康, 城镇化, 时空演变, 空间自相关

Abstract: The Shandong Segment of the Yellow River Basin is one of the regions with the fastest urbanization and the highest level of development. It also serves as the ‘gateway to the sea' of the Yellow River Basin and a key ecological conservation area, undertaking the dual mission of basin-wide ecological conservation and socio-economic development. Based on the vigor-organization-resilience-service evaluation model, we comprehensively assessed the ecosystem health status of the Shandong Segment of the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2023. A multidimensional urbanization measurement system was constructed from the three dimensions of population, economy, and land. Employing the coupling coordination degree model and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation model, we systematically investigated the spatiotemporal evolutions and spatial correlations between ecosystem health and urbanization. The results showed that the overall ecosystem health level in the Shandong Segment of the Yellow River Basin increased by 8.1%, primarily attributable to the enhancement of ecosystem services and vigor. Regional urbanization expanded rapidly, with land urbanization increasing far more than population and economic urbanization, indicating a significant internal imbalance. The coupling coordination degree increased by 30.5% overall but remained in the imbalanced stage, suggesting considerable room for further improvement in the overall coordination level. There was a significant spatial negative correlation between urbanization and ecosystem health, and this negative effect intensified over time. The cluster analysis identified four types of significant spatial agglomeration: high-high, high-low, low-high, and low-low, with area proportions of 2.1%, 6.5%, 11.5%, and 3.7%, respectively, revealing the complex spatial interactions between urbanization processes and the ecological background conditions. Based on these findings, we proposed regional ecosystem governance strategies in the context of rapid urbanization, aiming to provide a scientific reference for the coordinated development of ecological protection and urbanization in the Shandong Segment of the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, ecosystem health, urbanization, spatiotemporal evolution, spatial autocorrelation