关键词: 生产-生活-生态空间, 多情景模拟, PLUS, 黄河三角洲高效生态经济区, 生态环境效应

Abstract: Exploring the evolution of production-living-ecology space and their ecological environmental effects under multiple future scenarios is of great significance for coordinating territorial spatial planning and improving environmental quality. Based on land use data from the Yellow River Delta efficient ecological economic zone in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the distribution of production-living-ecology space and ecological environment quality. Using the PLUS model, we projected the distribution of production-living-ecology space in 2030, 2040, and 2050 under the scenarios of natural development (NDS), ecological protection (EPS), and urban development (UDS), and analyzed the ecological environment quality index and ecological contribution. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the area of ecological space in the study area decreased by 1413.3 km², while production and living spaces increased by 277.5 and 1136.4 km², respectively. The overall ecological environment qua-lity index declined from 0.3218 to 0.3041, before rising slightly to 0.3060, remaining at a moderate level. Model projections suggested that from 2030 to 2050, the ecological environment quality under all three scenarios would show a slow upward trend, with the EPS scenario having the highest ecological environment quality index (average value of 0.3092) and the UDS scenario the lowest (average value of 0.3082). Areas with moderate ecological environment quality were the most widespread, while high-quality areas were concentrated in mountainous regions, and low-quality areas were concentrated in urban living spaces. The transition from agricultural production land to water bodies contributed most to the improvement of ecological environment quality, while the conversion of agricultural production land to urban living land was the primary cause for the decline of quality.

Key words: production-living-ecology space; multi scenario simulation; PLUS; Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone; ecological environment effect