关键词: 土地利用, PLUS模型, InVEST模型, 碳储量, 经济价值

Abstract: The sandy and coarse sand area in northern Shaanxi is the main source of Yellow River sediment and an ecologically fragile zone. Accurately assessing its carbon storage dynamic and economic value is of great significance for consolidating and enhancing carbon sequestration capacity of regional ecosystems, serving ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Based on land use data from 2003, 2013, and 2023, and as well as 12 driving factors such as rainfall, elevation, and population, we simulated the land use under three scenarios (natural development, soil and water conservation, and farmland protection) in 2033 by using the PLUS model. The InVEST model was used to calculate the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon storage. The present value and terminal value of compound interest methods were used, and the elasticity index of carbon trading unit price to GDP was introduced to estimate the economic value of carbon storage. The results showed that land use types in the study area from 2003 to 2023 were mainly grassland, cultivated land, and forest land. The transfer between cultiva-ted land and grassland, as well as the transfer from grassland to forest land, were the main forms of land use change. The areas with high carbon density showed an increasing trend, while the areas with low carbon density gradually decreased. From 2003 to 2023, the total carbon storage and its economic value showed a continuous growth trend, with an estimated value of 357.62×10⁸ yuan in 2023. In 2033, under the scenario of soil and water conservation, the expansion of forests and grasslands would lead to the increment of high carbon density areas and the reduction of low-carbon density areas, resulting in the highest total carbon storage of 52.78×10⁸ tons and an economic value of 627.42×10⁸ yuan. Our results could provide scientific references for the rational allocation of land use resources and ecological governance in the sandy and coarse sand areas of northern Shaanxi.

Key words: land use, PLUS model, InVEST model, carbon storage, economic value