关键词: 东北老工业基地, 能值-生态足迹模型, 可持续性, 生态安全, 生态协调系数

Abstract: Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological security by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecologicalcapacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm² to 3.07 hm², while the emergyecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm² to 21.96 hm², which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecological security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm² to 2.98 hm², while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm² to 35.87 hm², the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safety needed to be solved urgently.

Key words: ecological security, northeast old industrial area., ecological coordination coefficient, sustainability, emergy-ecological footprint approach