Abstract: As the central city of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou’s ecosystem health forms the foundation for the city’s future sustainable development.To accurately assess and forecast future ecosystem health under different scenarios, based on land use data and the dynamic evolution characteristics of ecosystem health in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2020, we utilized a coupling of polynomial models, InVEST model, PLUS model and vigor-organization-resilience model to forecast and assess future ecosystem health under three scenarios: natural development, urban development, and ecological protection. Additionally based on the existing policies, ecological restoration zones were delineated. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the average ecosystem health value in Guangzhou decreased from 0.581 to 0.546, maintaining a healthy pattern of high in the north and south and low in the middle spatially. Under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and urban development, the average ecosystem health value of Guangzhou in 2030 was predicted to be 0.574, 0.576, and 0.570, respectively, showing spatial characteristics of forest degradation, farmland stability, and improvement of water and southern urban areas. Based on the predicted results and the differences in ecosystem health changes among various land use types, and by integrating existing urban planning, we designed three ecological restoration zones: ecosystem reshaping zone, ecosystem improvement zone, and ecosystem stability zone, which could provide guidance for ecological restoration and urban planning in Guangzhou.

Key words: ecosystem health, InVEST model, PLUS model, scenario simulation, Guangzhou