关键词: 生态输水, 胡杨, 径向生长量, 时空变化, 塔里木河下游, BIOME-BGC, 敏感性分析, Morris法, EFAST法, 净初级生产力

Abstract: Taking the Populus euphratica at lower reaches of Tarim River as test object, and by the methods of tree dendrohydrology, this paper studied the spatiotemporal variation of P. euphratic’s branch radial increment after ecological water transfer. There was a significant difference in the mean radial increment before and after ecological water transfer. The radial increment after the eco-water transfer was increased by 125%, compared with that before the water transfer. During the period of ecological water transfer, the radial increment was increased with increasing water transfer quantity, and there was a positive correlation between the annual radial increment and the total water transfer quantity (R²=0.394), suggesting that the radial increment of P. euphratica could be taken as the performance indicator of ecological water transfer. After the ecological water transfer, the radial increment changed greatly with the distance to the River, i.e., decreased significantly along with the increasing distance to the River (P=0.007). The P. euphratic’s branch radial increment also differed with stream segment (P=0.017), i.e., the closer to the head-water point (Daxihaizi Reservoir), the greater the branch radial increment. It was considered that the limited effect of the current ecological water transfer could scarcely change the continually deteriorating situation of the lower reaches of Tarim River.

Key words: ecological water transfer, Populus euphratica, radial increment, spatiotemporal variation, lower reaches of Tarim River, BIOME-BGC, sensitivity analysis, Morris method, EFAST method, net primary productivity （NPP）.