关键词: 景观生态风险, 生态系统服务价值, 永定河平原段, 生态修复分区, Z值标准化, 地理探测器

Abstract: Urban expansion and human disturbances have continuously reshaped land-use patterns in river basins, exacerbating landscape ecological risk (LER) and undermining ecosystem service value (ESV). To support targeted ecological restoration and spatial regulation, we focused on the plain section of the Yongding River Basin and developed an ecological restoration zoning and regulation framework based on the coupling relationship between LER and ESV. Using multi-temporal land-use and environmental datasets from 1980 to 2020, we systematically assessed the spatiotemporal variations of LER and ESV. Ecological restoration zones were delineated through Z-score standardization, while the mechanisms underlying their formation and evolution were identified using the Geodetector model. The results showed that land use in the study area had shifted from an agriculture-dominated pattern toward a mixed urban-ecological landscape, with a total land-use transition area of 404.07 km². Built-up land expanded rapidly, while cropland declined markedly. The areas of forest, grassland, and water bodies exhibited slight reco-very under the influence of ecological restoration projects. LER showed an increasing trend, with high-risk areas expanding along the Yongding River and southern plain, whereas localized low-risk areas reflected the positive effects of ecological restoration. Total ESV declined initially and then rebounded, with regulating and supporting services showing dominance in the long-term. The ESV of the Yongding River channel was sensitive to fluctuations in regional total ESV but had not yet recovered to pre-dry-up levels. Based on the LER-ESV coupling relationship, the study area was divided into ecological protection zones, ecological control zones, ecological improvement zones, and ecological conservation zones. Ecological improvement and control zones accounted for more than 70% of the total area, constituting the primary spatial focus for current ecological restoration and risk prevention. Land use remained the dominant factor driving the spatial differentiations of LER and ESV. The intensity of interactions between natural factors and human activity factors showed a declining trend in recent years, indicating that regional ecosystem structure and function were stabilizing under ecological governance. These findings would provide scientific basis for determining ecological restoration priorities and implementing differentiated spatial regulation in the plain section of the Yongding River.

Key words: landscape ecological risk, ecosystem service value, Yongding River plain section, ecological restoration zoning, Z-score standardization, Geodetector