关键词: 阿拉善高原, Biomod2模型, 拟步甲科, 物种分布模型, 潜在适生区

Abstract: As key decomposers and ecological indicator species in desert, Tenebrionidae insects are widely distri-buted in the Alxa Plateau. To assess the potential diffusion trend of Tenebrionidae under climate change, we used the Biomod2 ensemble model to simulate the potential suitable habitat distribution of Tenebrionidae and the dominant environmental factors influencing its diffusion from 1970 to 2000 and from 2040 to 2080 under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The prediction accuracy of the model was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the true skill statistic (TSS). The results showed that compared with a single model, the Biomod2 ensemble model effectively improved the accuracy and precision of the prediction of the suitable habitat of Tenebrionidae in the Alxa Plateau. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and TSS values of the model’s training set were both above 0.8. The main environmental factors driving the distribution of Tenebrionidae were climatic factors and altitude, among which the contribution rate of seasonal variation coefficient of temperature was the highest. From 1970 to 2000, species richness gradually decreased from southeast to northwest, with a total suitable habitat area of 41.2×10⁴ km² and a non-suitable habitat area of 26.49×10⁴ km². From 2040 to 2080, under the SSP126 scenario, the total suitable habitat area of Tenebrionidae would shrink, with an area of 35.9×10⁴ km², and the non-suitable habitat area increased to 31.6×10⁴ km². However, under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the total suitable habitat area of Tenebrionidae would expand, reaching 56.9×10⁴ km² and 52.6×10⁴ km², respectively. The distribution center of Tenebrionidae shifted towards the southeast desert area from 2040 to 2080.

Key words: Alxa Plateau, Biomod2 model, Tenebrionidae, species distribution model, potential suitable area