欢迎访问《应用生态学报》官方网站,今天是 分享到:

应用生态学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 2267-2273.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202308.030

• • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化条件下太平洋丽龟的适宜生境及其变化

邢衍阔1, 康斌2, 鹿志创1, 高祥刚1, 王震1, 田甲申1*   

  1. 1辽宁省海洋水产科学研究院, 大连市濒危海洋哺乳动物保护生物学重点实验室, 辽宁大连 116023;
    2中国海洋大学水产学院, 山东青岛 266003
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-27 接受日期:2023-06-16 出版日期:2023-08-15 发布日期:2024-02-15
  • 通讯作者: *E-mail: tianjiashen@163.com
  • 作者简介:邢衍阔, 男, 1997年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事珍惜动物保护研究。E-mail: xingyankuo@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国海油海洋环境与生态保护公益基金项目(CF-MEEC/ER/2021-15,CF-MEEC/TR/2022-11)和辽宁省海洋与渔业厅项目(201812,201822)

Suitable habitat of Lepidochelys olivacea and the changes under climate change

XING Yankuo1, KANG Bin2, LU Zhichuang1, GAO Xianggang1, WANG Zhen1, TIAN Jiashen1*   

  1. 1Dalian Key Laboratory of Conservation Bio-logy for Endangered Marine Mammals, Liaoning Ocean and Fisheries Science Research Institute, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China;
    2College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, Shandong, China
  • Received:2023-03-27 Accepted:2023-06-16 Online:2023-08-15 Published:2024-02-15

摘要: 太平洋丽龟作为被国际自然保护联盟(IUCN)认定的脆弱物种,近年来备受关注。为了解当前及未来气候情景条件下太平洋丽龟的分布及其变化,本研究利用其发现记录和8个环境预测变量(包括深度、离岸距离、平均初级生产力、最小初级生产力、海表平均温度、海表最小温度、海表平均盐度、海表最小盐度),构建了组合物种分布模型(Ensemble SDM)对其潜在栖息地分布进行预测,并利用曲线下面积(AUC)和真实技巧统计(TSS)值评估模型的准确性。结果表明: AUC和TSS值分别为0.96和0.81,表明组合模型具有较好的预测性能;海洋表面温度和盐度是决定太平洋丽龟分布最重要的两个预测变量,适宜温度为23~29 ℃,适宜盐度<34;当前环境条件下太平洋丽龟分布范围在30° N—25° S;在未来气候情景条件下,该物种的分布范围将减少,特别是在2100s RCP85气候情境下,其适宜生存范围将减少28%。模型验证结果显示,模型准确性较高,能对太平洋丽龟在当前和未来气候情景下的分布做出较为准确的预测。本研究可为制定更加合理的保护措施和管理策略提供数据参考。

关键词: 太平洋丽龟, 物种分布模型, 适宜生境, 气候变化

Abstract: As a vulnerable species identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Lepidochelys olivacea has attracted extensive attention in recent years. To examine its current distribution and that under future climate change scenarios, we compiled the occurrence data of L. olivacea. With eight predictor variables, including depth, offshore distance, mean primary productivity, minimum primary productivity, mean sea surface temperature, minimum sea surface temperature, mean sea surface salinity, and minimum sea surface salinity, we predicted its distribution in an ensemble species distribution model. The accuracy of the model was evaluated with the parameters of areas under curves (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). The results showed that the AUC and TSS values were 0.96 and 0.81, respectively, indicating a good predictive performance of the ensemble model. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the two most important variables determining the distribution of L. olivacea, with the suitable temperature ranging from 23 to 29 ℃ and salinity below 34. The current distribution range of L. olivacea was between 30° N—25° S. Under future climate scenarios, its distribution range would decrease, especially under the RCP85 scenario in the 2100s (with a 28% reduction in the suitable survival range). The results of model validation showed that it had high accuracy and could make accurate predictions of the distribution. This study would provide references for the development of more rational conservation measures and management strategies.

Key words: Lepidochelys olivacea, species distribution model, suitable habitat, climatic change.