关中平原城市群土地利用结构多情景优化和生态系统服务价值预测

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202309.009

应用生态学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 2507-2517.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202309.009

关中平原城市群土地利用结构多情景优化和生态系统服务价值预测

祁育汀¹, 张平^1,2,3*, 刘雷¹, 马雪楠¹, 王欢¹, 赵娟¹

¹西安工程大学环境与化学工程学院, 西安 710600;
²西部绿色建筑国家重点实验室/西安建筑科技大学, 西安 710055;
³西安市国土空间信息重点实验室, 西安 710075

收稿日期:2023-02-22 修回日期:2023-07-26 出版日期:2023-09-15 发布日期:2024-03-16
通讯作者: *E-mail: pingzhang_2008@126.com
作者简介:祁育汀, 女, 1999年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事土地利用模拟与生态系统服务等相关研究。E-mail: qyt15709437007@163.com
基金资助:
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2021JM-447)、西部绿色建筑国家重点实验室开放基金项目(LSKF202309)和西安市国土空间信息重点实验室(长安大学)开放基金项目(300102353507)资助

Multi-scenario optimization of land use structure and prediction of ecosystem service value in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration

QI Yuting¹, ZHANG Ping^1,2,3*, LIU Lei¹, MA Xuenan¹, WANG Huan¹, ZHAO Juan¹

¹College of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Xi’an Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710600, China;
²State Key Laboratory of Green Building in Western China/ Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China;
³Xi’an Key Laboratory of Territorial Spatial Information, Xi’an 710075, China

Received:2023-02-22 Revised:2023-07-26 Online:2023-09-15 Published:2024-03-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 经济快速发展导致关中平原城市群的土地利用发生重大变化,导致区域的生态系统服务价值(ESV)发生改变。本研究基于关中平原城市群土地利用数据和驱动数据,使用系统动力学(SD)模型耦合混合元胞(MCCA)模型,预测了自然发展、经济发展、生态保护与耕地保护情景下2040年土地利用单元内ESV细微的时空变化,揭示ESV对社会经济演变的响应,并采用敏感性指数研究土地利用变化对ESV的影响。结果表明: 2000—2020年间,研究区土地利用转变主要是耕地、林地和草地之间的转换以及耕地转向建设用地。由于林地和水域的面积增多,ESV在此期间小幅上升。2040年,与生态保护情景相比,经济发展情景的林地占比减少1.8%,建设用地增加1.3%。2020—2040年间,经济发展情景下,ESV在中部和东部呈下降趋势,但在耕地保护情景下呈上升趋势,其中,水文调节和气候调节对ESV的贡献最大;ESV总量除生态保护情景以外均呈下降趋势。生态保护情景下,土地利用变化发生对ESV有积极影响,而其他情景下,ESV对土地利用变化则有负面响应,其中,经济发展情景下的负面影响最大。研究结果可为多情景土地利用模拟和ESV预测提供新方法,对城市群国土空间布局优化、土地资源规划管理和可持续发展路径策略具有重要的科学和实践意义。

关键词: 关中平原城市群, 系统动力学-混合元胞模型, 土地利用变化, 生态系统服务价值

Abstract: Rapid economic development has led to significant changes in land use in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, which alters regional ecosystem service value (ESV). Based on the land use and driver data of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, we used the system dynamics (SD) model coupled with the mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) model to predict the subtle spatial and temporal changes of ESV within the land use unit in 2040 under the scenarios of natural development, economic development, ecological protection, and arable land conservation, to reveal the responses of ESV to the socio-economic evolution. We examined the impacts of land use change on ESV by using the sensitivity index. The results showed that land use transformation between 2000 and 2020 in the study area was mainly the conversion between arable land, forest, grassland, and the conversion of arable land to construction land. Due to increased forest and water, ESV increased slightly during this period. In 2040, compared with the ecological protection scenario, the proportion of forest in the economic development scenario decreased by 1.8%, and the construction land increased by 1.3%. During 2020-2040, under the economic development scenario, ESV showed a downward trend in the central and eastern regions but an upward trend under the arable land conservation scenario, with hydrological and climatic regulation contributing the most to ESV. Total ESV showed a decreasing trend except for the ecological conservation scenario. In the ecological protection scenario, land use change positively impacted ESV. In contrast, ESV had a negative response to land use change in other scenarios, with the greatest reduction in the economic development scenario. The research could provide new methods for multi-scenario land use simulation and ESV prediction and have scientific and practical significance for optimizing land space layout, land resource planning management, and sustainable development path strategy of urban agglomerations.

Key words: Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, system dynamics-mixed-cell cellular automata (SD-MCCA) model, land use change, ecosystem service value

祁育汀, 张平, 刘雷, 马雪楠, 王欢, 赵娟. 关中平原城市群土地利用结构多情景优化和生态系统服务价值预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2023, 34(9): 2507-2517.

QI Yuting, ZHANG Ping, LIU Lei, MA Xuenan, WANG Huan, ZHAO Juan. Multi-scenario optimization of land use structure and prediction of ecosystem service value in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2023, 34(9): 2507-2517.

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关中平原城市群土地利用结构多情景优化和生态系统服务价值预测

Multi-scenario optimization of land use structure and prediction of ecosystem service value in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration

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