浙江东部沿海城市土地利用模拟及生态系统服务价值评估

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202310.025

应用生态学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (10): 2777-2787.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202310.025

浙江东部沿海城市土地利用模拟及生态系统服务价值评估

谭昭昭^1,2, 陈毓遒¹, 丁憬枫^1,4*, 刘梦迪^1,3, 王浩^1,3, 王江²

¹台州市污染防治技术中心有限公司, 浙江台州 318000;
²台州学院, 浙江台州 318000;
³台州市生态环境大数据重点实验室, 浙江台州 318000;
⁴浙江大学化学工程与生物工程学院, 杭州 310000

收稿日期:2023-06-20 接受日期:2023-08-24 出版日期:2023-10-15 发布日期:2024-04-15
通讯作者: * E-mail: dingjingfeng@zju.edu.cn
作者简介:谭昭昭, 男, 1991年生, 博士, 工程师。主要从事生态环境研究。E-mail: 15621039296@163.com
基金资助:
浙江省科技计划项目(2023C03139)和浙江省生态环境科研和成果推广项目(2022HT0008)

Simulation of land use and assessment of ecosystem service value in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province, China

TAN Zhaozhao^1,2, CHEN Yuqiu¹, DING Jingfeng^1,4*, LIU Mengdi^1,3, WANG Hao^1,3, WANG Jiang²

¹Taizhou Pollution Control Technology Center Co., Ltd., Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang, China;
²Taizhou University, Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang, China;
³Key Laboratory of Ecological and Environmental Big Data of Taizhou, Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang, China;
⁴College of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310000, China

Received:2023-06-20 Accepted:2023-08-24 Online:2023-10-15 Published:2024-04-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 模拟浙江东部沿海城市土地利用变化(LUCC)引起的生态系统服务价值(ESV)变化,对区域可持续发展和生态安全具有重要意义。本研究以浙江东南沿海城市为研究区,选取2000—2020年3期土地利用及政府统计年鉴为基础数据,分析期间LUCC对ESV的影响,利用PLUS模型模拟2030年自然发展、生态保护和城镇发展情景下LUCC,基于格网尺度分析ESV的空间分布和集聚程度,并明晰ESV的敏感性特征。结果表明: 2000—2020年,研究区建设用地面积呈显著增加趋势,而林地、耕地和水域面积明显减少,导致ESV呈持续下降趋势,减幅达160×10⁸元。2030年自然发展、生态保护和城镇发展情景下,建设用地分别增加93624、54927和111966 hm²,东部平原地区将成为建设用地扩张的集聚区;3种情景下的ESV分别为1693×10⁸、1729×10⁸和1688×10⁸元,均低于2020年ESV,生态保护情景下ESV下降速度放缓。研究区ESV呈现西高东低的空间分布特征,热点和冷点分布范围较大且集聚性较强,热点区域主要集中在西部,冷点区域主要分布在东部和北部。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型, 多情景模拟, 生态系统服务价值, 浙江东部沿海城市

Abstract: Simulating the change of ecosystem service values (ESV) caused by land use/cover change (LUCC) in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province is of great significance for regional sustainable development and ecological security. Based on remote sensing images of land use and Statistics Yearbook of 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the influence of LUCC on ESV in the study area during 2000-2020. We used the PLUS model to simulate land use change under three scenarios, including inertial development, ecological protection, and urban development in 2030, analyzed the spatial distribution and concentration degree of ESVs based on grid scale, and clarified the sensitivity characteristics of ESVs. The results showed that the construction land area showed an increasing trend during 2000-2020. The area of forest, cultivated land and water decreased significantly, resulting in a continuous downward trend of ESVs, which decreased by 160×10⁸ yuan. Under the simulation of three scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, and urban development, the construction land area would increase by 93624, 54927, and 111966 hm², respectively. The eastern plain would become the agglomeration area of construction land expansion. The ESVs of those three scenarios was 1693×10⁸, 1729×10⁸, and 1688×10⁸ yuan, respectively, which were all lower than the ESVs of the study area in 2020. The decline rate of ESV in the ecological protection scenario slowed down. The spatial distribution of ESVs in the study area was high in the west and low in the east. Hot spots and cold spots of ESVs were distributed in a large range with strong agglomeration. Hot spots were mainly concentrated in the west, while cold spots were mainly distributed in the east and north.

Key words: land use change, patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, multi-scenario simulation, ecosystem service value, the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province

谭昭昭, 陈毓遒, 丁憬枫, 刘梦迪, 王浩, 王江. 浙江东部沿海城市土地利用模拟及生态系统服务价值评估[J]. 应用生态学报, 2023, 34(10): 2777-2787.

TAN Zhaozhao, CHEN Yuqiu, DING Jingfeng, LIU Mengdi, WANG Hao, WANG Jiang. Simulation of land use and assessment of ecosystem service value in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2023, 34(10): 2777-2787.

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浙江东部沿海城市土地利用模拟及生态系统服务价值评估

Simulation of land use and assessment of ecosystem service value in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province, China

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