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应用生态学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (09): 2233-2240.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学的辽宁省水环境承载力模拟与预测

王俭1,2;李雪亮1;李法云1,3;包红旭1   

  1. 1辽宁大学环境学院| 沈阳 110036;2辽宁省环境遥感技术应用重点实验室| 沈阳 110036;3湖南农业大学资源环境学院| 长沙 410128
  • 收稿日期:2009-02-13 出版日期:2009-09-20 发布日期:2009-09-20

Simulation and prediction of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaoning Province based on system dynamics model.

WANG Jian1,2;LI Xue-liang1;LI Fa-yun1,3;BAO Hong-xu1   

  1. 1School of Environmental Science, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China;2Liaoning Province Key Laboratory of Environmental Sensing Application, Shenyang 110036, China|3School of Resource and Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China
  • Received:2009-02-13 Online:2009-09-20 Published:2009-09-20

摘要: 应用系统动力学方法建立了水环境承载力模型,并结合层次分析法和向量模法,模拟了辽宁省水环境系统的动态变化,预测了2000—2050年辽宁省水环境在不同发展方案下的承载能力.结果表明:若保持现行发展方案不变,2000—2050年,辽宁省水环境承载力将呈逐年下降趋势;仅增加水资源供给、不进行科学合理的水环境保护与治理,将无法提高该区域水环境承载能力;只有将开源、节流、治污、减排等多种手段相结合,才能有效提高辽宁省水环境承载能力,促进该地区经济、社会和环境的协调发展.

关键词: 系统动力学, 水环境承载力, 模拟与预测, 辽宁省, 陕南秦巴山区, 水稻, 施肥, 评价

Abstract: By the methods of system dynamics, a water environmental carrying capa
city (WECC) model was constructed, and the dynamic trend of the WECC in Liaoning
 Province was simulated by using this model, in combining with analytical hierar
chy process (AHP) and the vector norm method. It was predicted that under the co
nditions of maintaining present development schemes, the WECC in this province i
n 2000〖KG-*2〗-〖KG-*7〗2050 would be decreased year after year. Only increasin
g water resources supply while not implementing scientific and rational manageme
nt of water environment could not improve the regional WECC, and the integration
 of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastew
ater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the only effective way to
improve the WECC and the coordinated development of economy, society, and enviro
nment in Liaoning.

Key words: system dynamics, water environmental carrying capacity, simulation and prediction, Liaoning Province, Qin-Ba mountainous area of southern Shaanxi, rice, fertilization, evaluation.