基于MaxEnt模型的川西高原松茸气候生态适宜性与潜在分布

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202107.013

应用生态学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 2525-2533.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202107.013

基于MaxEnt模型的川西高原松茸气候生态适宜性与潜在分布

王庆莉¹, 王茹琳², 张利平³, 韩玉江¹, 王明田^4,5*, 陈慧⁶, 陈娟¹, 郭斌⁷

¹甘孜州气象局, 四川康定 626000;
²四川省农村经济综合信息中心, 成都 610072;
³达州市气象局, 四川达州 635000;
⁴四川省气象台, 成都 610072;
⁵南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 成都 610066;
⁶马尔康市气象局, 四川马尔康 624000;
⁷阿坝州气象局, 四川马尔康 624000

收稿日期:2020-11-05 修回日期:2021-04-06 出版日期:2021-07-15 发布日期:2022-01-15
通讯作者: *wangmt0514@163.com
作者简介:王庆莉,女,1974年生,高级工程师。主要从事农业气象研究。E-mail:scwql3028@163.com
基金资助:
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重实验室2018-重点-05-05,SCQXKJQN2020016)

Climatic ecological suitability and potential distribution of Tricholoma matsutake in western Sichuan Plateau, China based on MaxEnt model

WANG Qing-li¹, WANG Ru-lin², ZHANG Li-ping³, HAN Yu-jiang¹, WANG Ming-tian^4,5*, CHEN Hui⁶, CHEN Juan¹, GUO Bin⁷

¹Ganzi Meteorological Bureau, Kangding 626000, Sichuan, China;
²Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610072, China;
³Dazhou Meteorological Bureau, Dazhou 635000, Sichuan, China;
⁴Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;
⁵Sichuan Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture Research in Southern Hilly Areas, Chengdu 610066, China;
⁶Maerkang Meteorological Bureau, Maerkang 624000, Sichuan, China;
⁷Meteorological Bureau of Aba, Maerkang 624000, Sichuan, China

Received:2020-11-05 Revised:2021-04-06 Online:2021-07-15 Published:2022-01-15
Contact: *wangmt0514@163.com
Supported by:
Technological Development of Meteorological Administration/ Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin (Key Labo-ratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-05, SCQXKJQN2020016).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过野外实地调查,结合文献中松茸分布数据,采用生态位因子分析和最大熵模型对川西高原松茸的分布规律及适生区范围进行模拟和验证,分析气候因子与动态分布之间的关系,预测未来松茸适生区的变化。结果表明: 模型训练集和验证集曲线下面积(AUC)值均＞0.90,模型预测结果极准确。影响松茸潜在分布的环境变量主要有最冷月最低温度、最冷季雨量、气温年温差等气候因子和土壤类型,累计贡献率达90.3%。松茸适宜分布区的生态位参数为: 最冷月最低温度-18.5～-5.4 ℃、最冷季雨量15.7 mm以下、气温年温差39.5～45 ℃、土壤类型为半淋溶土(包括燥红土、褐土、灰褐土、黑土和灰色森林土)。川西高原松茸的适生区分布在高原西南部、南部、中部、东部的海拔1900～3600 m地区。雅江、乡城、康定、九龙、稻城、理塘、巴塘、丹巴、马尔康、小金、金川、理县、茂县等县(市)的部分乡镇松茸适生指数较高,得荣、道孚、新龙、炉霍、白玉、泸定、壤塘、汶川、黑水、九寨沟等县(市)的部分乡镇有松茸中、低适生区存在。适生区破碎分散,依河流和山脉走向呈片状或枝状不连续分布,中适生区与高适生区相连,低适生区是高、中适生区的延伸。未来气候变化对川西高原松茸生长有利,气候适生区总体呈增加趋势,低海拔岷江流域受影响程度高于高海拔地区。

关键词: 松茸, 气候生态位, 适生区

Abstract: Based on the distribution data of Tricholoma matsutake obtained from field investigation and literature, the ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the distribution law and suitable area of T. matsutake in the western Sichuan Plateau. The prediction was made for the future changes in the suitable area of T. matsutake by analyzing the relationship between climate factors and dynamic distribution. The results showed that the area under curve (AUC) values of both the model training set and validation set were greater than 0.90, indicating that the model prediction results were extremely accurate. The environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of T. matsutake were mainly the lowest temperature in the coldest month, the coldest season precipitation, annual temperature difference and soil type, with accumulative contribution of 90.3%. The niche parameters of suitable distribution areas of T. matsutake were as follows: the lowest temperature in the coldest month was -18.5--5.4 ℃, the coldest season precipitation was less than 15.7 mm, the annual temperature difference was 39.5-45 ℃, and soil type was semi-leached soil, including dry red soil, cinnamon soil, gray cinnamon soil, black soil and grey forest soil. The suitable areas of T. matsutake were distributed in the southwest, south, central and east of the plateau at an altitude range of 1900-3600 m. The highly suita-ble areas were mainly distributed in some towns of Yajiang, Xiangcheng, Kangding, Jiulong, Daocheng, Litang, Batang, Danba, Maerkang, Xiaojin, Jinchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, etc. The moderately and lowly suitable areas were located in some towns of Derong, Daofu, Xinlong, Luhuo, Baiyu, Luding, Rangtang, Wenchuan, Heishui, Jiuzhaigou. The highly suitable areas were discontinuously distributed according to the direction of rivers and mountains. The moderately suitable areas were connected with the highly suitable areas, while the lowly suitable areas were the extension of the highly and moderately suitable areas. Future climate change would be beneficial to the growth of T. matsutake on the western Sichuan Plateau, while the climate-suitable areas would show an overall increasing trend. Suitable areas in the low-altitude Minjiang River Basin would be more affected by climate change than those located in high-altitude areas.

Key words: Tricholoma matsutake, climatic niche, suitable area

王庆莉, 王茹琳, 张利平, 韩玉江, 王明田, 陈慧, 陈娟, 郭斌. 基于MaxEnt模型的川西高原松茸气候生态适宜性与潜在分布[J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(7): 2525-2533.

WANG Qing-li, WANG Ru-lin, ZHANG Li-ping, HAN Yu-jiang, WANG Ming-tian, CHEN Hui, CHEN Juan, GUO Bin. Climatic ecological suitability and potential distribution of Tricholoma matsutake in western Sichuan Plateau, China based on MaxEnt model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2021, 32(7): 2525-2533.

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基于MaxEnt模型的川西高原松茸气候生态适宜性与潜在分布

Climatic ecological suitability and potential distribution of Tricholoma matsutake in western Sichuan Plateau, China based on MaxEnt model

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