关键词: 黄淮海地区, 冬小麦, 夏玉米, 气候生产潜力, 未来气候情景, AEZ模型

Abstract: Based on the daily data under B2 climate scenario (2011-2050) and baseline climate condition (1961-1990) extracted from the regional climate model PRECIS, and by using the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) model, a prediction was conducted on the possible spatiotemporal changes of the climatic potential productivity of the two crops in the Huanghuaihai Plain in 2011-2050. Under baseline climate condition, the climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize presented a regional differentiation, i.e., higher in southeast and lower in northwest regions, and higher along coast and lower in inland at the same latitudes, and fluctuated within the ranges of 3893-11000 kg·hm^-2 and 5908-12000 kg·hm^-2,respectively. Under B2 climate scenario, the climatic potential productivity of winter wheat and summer maize would have a greater inter-annual change, due to the different matching degrees of light, temperature and water during the growth periods of the crops. The climatic potential productivity of winter wheat in 2011-2030 and  summer maize in 2021-2040 would have an obvious increase, with great potential for development. Under the conditions of maintaining the present production, the climatic potential productivity of winter wheat in 2011-2050 would present an overall regional differentiation of reverse change in southeast and northwest regions and the same change in coastal and inland areas, whereas the climatic potential productivity of summer maize in 2011-2050 would have little regional differentiation.

Key words: Huanghuaihai Plain, winter wheat, summer maize, climatic potential productivity, future climate scenario, AEZ model