气候变化和人类活动对宁夏植被净初级生产力的影响

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202508.029

应用生态学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 2429-2441.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202508.029

气候变化和人类活动对宁夏植被净初级生产力的影响

赵慧^1,2,3,4, 崔洋^1,3,4*, 李梦华^1,3,4, 康雄^1,3,4, 李万春^1,3,4, 韩颖娟^1,3,4, 杨建玲^1,3,4, 王云霞^1,3,4

¹中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室, 银川 750002;
²中国气象局-中国农业大学农业应对气候变化联合实验室, 北京 100193;
³宁夏气象科研所, 银川 750002;
⁴宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 银川 750002

收稿日期:2025-01-20 接受日期:2025-06-18 出版日期:2025-08-18 发布日期:2026-02-18
通讯作者: *E-mail: cuiyang@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:赵慧, 女, 1992年生, 硕士。主要从事生态气象遥感监测评估研究。E-mail: zhaohui_cau@163.com
基金资助:
宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目(2024BEG03003)、宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC05065,2022AAC03679)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J043)和国家自然基金联合基金项目(U22A20577)

Impacts of climate change and human activities on net primary productivity of vegetation in Ningxia, Northwest China

ZHAO Hui^1,2,3,4, CUI Yang^1,3,4*, LI Menghua^1,3,4, KANG Xiong^1,3,4, LI Wanchun^1,3,4, HAN Yingjuan^1,3,4, YANG Jianling^1,3,4, WANG Yunxia^1,3,4

¹Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China;
²CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing 100193, China;
³Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Yinchuan 750002, China;
⁴Ningxia Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002, China

Received:2025-01-20 Accepted:2025-06-18 Online:2025-08-18 Published:2026-02-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为定量化区分气候变化与人类活动对植被净初级生产力(NPP)的贡献,基于2000—2022年宁夏27个地面气象站观测资料和中分辨率成像光谱仪数据,结合Thornthwaite Memorial模型和改进型Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach模型,采用Theil-Sen斜率估计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Hurst指数和偏相关分析等方法,分析了潜在净初级生产力(PNPP)、实际净初级生产力(ANPP)及人类活动影响下净初级生产力变化(HNPP)的时空特征,并通过残差法定量评估了气候变化与人类活动对NPP的相对作用。结果表明:2000—2022年,宁夏PNPP和ANPP均呈增长趋势,年增长速率分别为4.27和6.60 g C·m^-2·a^-1,HNPP波动减小,减小速率为2.33 g C·m^-2·a^-1。PNPP增长区域占研究区的94.4%,ANPP增长区域占92.8%。PNPP减小区域主要位于石嘴山东南部和银川市南部;ANPP减小区域主要分布在黄河沿线部分地区;66.5%的区域HNPP呈下降趋势,未来大部地区人类活动对植被生长不利。降水是影响ANPP变化的主导气象因子,74.4%的区域ANPP与年降水量呈显著正相关,降水的影响大于平均气温、日照时数和平均风速。气候变化和人类活动对NPP的相对贡献率平均值分别为46.3%和53.4%。植被改善主要受气候变化与人类活动共同驱动,占全区面积的62.1%,26.1%的区域植被改善由气候变化主导;植被退化区占全区面积的7.2%,主要由人类活动及其与气候变化的共同作用驱动。研究成果对揭示气候变化、人类活动对植被净初级生产力的作用机理、促进区域生态建设和政策制定具有重要意义。

关键词: 净初级生产力, 植被变化, 相对贡献率, 气候变化, 人类活动

Abstract: This study aimed to quantitatively distinguish the contributions of climate change and human activities to net primary productivity (NPP). Based on meteorological observation data from 27 ground-based meteorological observation stations in Ningxia from 2000 to 2022 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, we examined the spatiotemporal variations of potential net primary productivity (PNPP), actual net primary productivity (ANPP), and human-induced net primary productivity change (HNPP). The Thornthwaite Memorial model and the improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model, as well as Theil-Sen slope estimation, Mann-Kendall trend test, Hurst index, and partial correlation analysis were used. We quantitatively evaluated the relative effects of climate change and human activities on NPP by the residual method. From 2000 to 2022, both PNPP and ANPP in Ningxia exhibited increasing trends, with annual growth rates of 4.27 and 6.60 g C·m^-2·a^-1, respectively, while HNPP showed a fluctuating decreasing trend, with a reduction rate of 2.33 g C·m^-2·a^-1. Areas with increasing PNPP accounted for 94.4% of the study area, while the area with increasing ANPP covered 92.8%. Declining PNPP was primarily observed in the southeastern part of Shizuishan and the southern part of Yinchuan. The areas experiencing a decrease in ANPP were mainly distributed along the Yellow River. 66.5% area of Ningxia displayed a downtrend in HNPP, and human activities in most regions in the future. Precipitation was the dominant meteorological factor influencing ANPP variation, with 74.4% area of the region showing a significantly positive correlation between ANPP and annual precipitation. The influence of precipitation was greater than that of mean temperature, sunshine duration, and mean wind speed. The average relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP were 46.3% and 53.4%, respectively. In 62.1% of the total area, vegetation improvement was primarily driven by the combined effects of climate change and human activities, while 26.1% of the area experienced vegetation improvement mainly due to climate change. Vegetation degradation accounted for 7.2% of the total area, mainly driven by human activities or the combined effects of climate change and human activities. These findings would help reveal the mechanisms underlying the impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP, and thus offer scientific support for regional ecological construction and policy-making.

Key words: net primary productivity, vegetation change, relative contribution rate, climate change, human activity

赵慧, 崔洋, 李梦华, 康雄, 李万春, 韩颖娟, 杨建玲, 王云霞. 气候变化和人类活动对宁夏植被净初级生产力的影响[J]. 应用生态学报, 2025, 36(8): 2429-2441.

ZHAO Hui, CUI Yang, LI Menghua, KANG Xiong, LI Wanchun, HAN Yingjuan, YANG Jianling, WANG Yunxia. Impacts of climate change and human activities on net primary productivity of vegetation in Ningxia, Northwest China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2025, 36(8): 2429-2441.

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气候变化和人类活动对宁夏植被净初级生产力的影响

Impacts of climate change and human activities on net primary productivity of vegetation in Ningxia, Northwest China

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