关键词: 碳储量, 土地利用, 多情景预测, PLUS模型, 渭河流域

Abstract: Land use changes are the main cause for the changes of carbon storage, which is of great importance for maintaining regional carbon balance to make multi-scenario projections of future land use change and explore its impacts on carbon storage. In recent years, under the combination of natural factors and policies, with the land use changing significantly, carbon storage of the Weihe River Basin has also changed. Based on the PLUS-InVEST model, we assessed and predicted the spatial and temporal variations of ecosystem carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin and explored the impacts of land-use change. The results showed that land use distribution pattern of the Weihe River Basin did not change much from 2000 to 2020, which was characterized by the decreases of cropland area and the increases of the area of the remaining land use types. The main ways of land use type conversion were cropland to built-up land and inter-conversion of cropland, forest, grassland. Carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a total increment of 15.31×10⁶ t. The areas with high carbon storage presented the characteristics of “northeast patch-western scatter-central and southern belt”, while low carbon storage distributed in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration located in the lower basin. Compared to 2020, carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin in 2030 would increase under the four scenarios. Carbon storage would increase the least under the economic development scenario, and the most under the ecological protection scenario. The variation of carbon storage in spatial distribution would be embodied in the staggered zone of cropland, forest, and grassland in the upper basin. The results could provide data support for land use management decisions and carbon storage enhancement in the Weihe River Basin.

Key words: carbon storage, land use, multi-scenario prediction, PLUS Model, the Weihe River Basin