大兴安岭多年冻土区活动层厚度变化及其驱动机制

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202606.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 大兴安岭多年冻土区位于欧亚大陆中高纬度多年冻土带南缘,是全球变暖背景下寒区冻土退化的关键响应区域,但其活动层厚度(ALT)的变化与驱动机制尚有待进一步明确。本研究基于Stefan方程与结构方程模型(SEM),结合多源数据探讨了1982—2022年大兴安岭多年冻土区ALT的时空分异及驱动机制。结果表明:1982—2022年,大兴安岭多年冻土区ALT多年平均值为(141.55±38.09) cm。其中大片多年冻土区、大片-岛状多年冻土区、岛状和稀疏岛状及零星分布多年冻土区的ALT平均值分别为(107.28±12.43)、(125.04±14.92)、(165.54±35.63) cm。在时间变化上,研究区ALT以(0.44±0.20) cm·a^-1的速率显著增加,表明近40年来该区多年冻土整体呈持续退化趋势,ALT增厚速率由北部大片多年冻土区的(0.30±0.05) cm·a^-1增加至南部岛状和稀疏岛状及零星分布多年冻土区的(0.53±0.21) cm·a^-1。SEM分析结果表明,年平均气温对ALT变化具有显著驱动作用(总效应=0.79);而土壤湿度表现出显著抑制作用(总效应=-0.41);气温、降水和植被覆盖等因子通过复杂的相互作用共同影响ALT的变化。综上,1982—2022年大兴安岭多年冻土区ALT显著增厚,退化趋势明显,并呈现由北向南加剧的趋势,其变化主要受气温和土壤湿度的共同调控。本研究可为中高纬度多年冻土退化监测及其生态环境效应评估提供科学依据。

关键词: 冻土退化, 活动层厚度, Stefan方程, 时空分异, 结构方程模型

Abstract: The Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region, located at the southern margin of the Eurasian mid-to-high latitude permafrost belt, is a critical response area for permafrost degradation under global warming. However, the spatiotemporal variation patterns and driving mechanisms of its active layer thickness (ALT) remain to be further clarified. Based on the Stefan equation and structural equation model (SEM), combined with multi-source data, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of ALT in the Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region from 1982 to 2022. The results showed that the multi-year average ALT from 1982 to 2022 in the Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region was 141.55±38.09 cm. The average ALT values for the extensive continuous permafrost zone, the extensive-island permafrost zone, and the island, sporadic and scattered permafrost zone were 107.28±12.43 cm, 125.04±14.92 cm, and 165.54±35.63 cm, respectively. Temporally, the ALT in the study area increased significantly at a rate of 0.44±0.20 cm·a^-1, indicating a continuous degradation trend of permafrost over the past 40 years. Meanwhile, the thickening rate of ALT increased from 0.30±0.05 cm·a^-1 in the northern extensive continuous permafrost zone to 0.53±0.21 cm·a^-1 in the southern island, sporadic, and scattered permafrost zone. SEM analysis revealed that mean annual air temperature exerted a significant driving effect on ALT changes (total effect was 0.79), soil moisture showed a significant inhibitory effect (total effect was -0.41), and that air temperature, precipitation, and vegetation cover jointly influenced ALT dynamics through complex interactions. In conclusion, the ALT in the Daxing’anling Mountains permafrost region thickened significantly from 1982 to 2022, with a clear permafrost degradation trend that intensified from north to south, and its change was primarily regulated by the combined effects of air temperature and soil moisture. This study would provide a scientific basis for monitoring mid-to-high latitude permafrost degradation and assessing its ecological and environmental effects.

Key words: permafrost degradation, active layer thickness, Stefan equation, spatiotemporal variation, structural equation modeling

陈竹馨, 宋英杰, 李佳诺, 张博, 黄紫颜, 郭蒙. 大兴安岭多年冻土区活动层厚度变化及其驱动机制[J]. 应用生态学报, 2026, 37(6): 1924-1932.

CHEN Zhuxin, SONG Yingjie, LI Jianuo, ZHANG Bo, HUANG Ziyan, GUO Meng. Variation of active layer thickness and the driving factors in the permafrost region of the Daxing’anling Mountains, Northeast China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2026, 37(6): 1924-1932.

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