关键词: 大气降水, 方差分析, 土壤水分, 半干旱区, 综合评估, 灰色关联分析, 低温冷害, 水稻, 东北

Abstract: Based on the principle of variance analysis, the data of last 30 years precipitation duringspring sowing period in Kazuo region of West Liaoning are analysed.It is found that thereexist two variation cycles of precipitation within14 and 10 years.On the basis of this, theprecipitation during spring sowing period of this region in 1992-2000 is forecasted.Through actual examination on the data of 1992 and 1993, the calculated values are in agreement with observated ones, the relative error being less than9%.Based on the calculated values of precipitation and the effective soil water-storage capacity after harvest,mathematical models for forecasting soil moisture regime during spring sowing period areestablished, and soil moisture indices suited to spring sowing conditions are discussed.

Key words: Atmospheric precipitation, Variance analysis, Soil moisture, Semi-arid region, grey relational analysis, chilling damage, rice, northeast China, comprehensive assessment.