关键词: 马尔柯夫过程, 土地利用格局, 转移概率, 刈割, 微生物量, 可提取碳, 放牧, 可提取氮

Abstract: Based on the data obtained from remote sensing aerial photographes and topographic maps during three different periods, the transition probability of land use pattern in Dongling District of Shenyang is defined, and the tendency of its change is forecasted with application of Markov process. The resuits show that over a long period of time, the arable land area will be decreased gradually and the area occupied by residence, factory and mine will be increased day by day. Finally, the land use pattern will be lied in a stable state, e. g. , non -irrigated farmland occupies by 20. 66%, paddy field by 28.41%, residential area and factory-mine by 37.42%, vegetable field by 6.15% , forest land by 4.36％. At that time, a new land use pattern of urban and rural integration will be formed.

Key words: Markov process, Land use pattern, Transition probability, extractable carbon, grazing, mowing, microbial biomass., extractable nitrogen