关键词: 多刺绿绒蒿, 总状绿绒蒿, 最大熵模型, 气候变暖, 潜在分布区

Abstract: Meconopsis comprises rare alpine plants with high ornamental value. Due to global warming and human activities, their habitats have been destroyed. To provide data support for the dynamic monitoring of Meconopsis species and ex situ conservation, and to offer reference for species classification within the genus Meconopsis, we focused on two flagship species of typical alpine scree habitats, M. horridula and M. racemosa. Based on the geographic distribution data, we used the MaxEnt model 3.4.4 to simulate the suitable habitat areas of both species for the current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080) periods, and used ArcGIS 10.8 to analyze the dominant factors affecting their habitat suitability and the dynamics of suitable areas under future climate warming. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for both Meconopsis species were greater than 0.9, indicating that the model predictions were accurate. Altitude, isothermality, temperature seasonality, and human footprint were the main variables affecting the suitable distribution of M. horridula and M. racemosa. Currently, the total suitable area for M. horridula and M. racemosa were 2.60 million and 1.62 million km², respectively, with an overlap of 1.58 million km², indicating that the suitable ranges highly coincided. Currently, the suitable areas of both Meconopsis species were distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, and Xinjiang, and under the influence of climate warming, there would be a potential migration toward the northwest in the future. The main suitability variables of M. horridula and M. racemosa were consistent, with total suitable ranges being highly coincided.

Key words: Meconopsis horridula, Meconopsis racemosa, MaxEnt model, climate warming, potential distribution area